Bundesliga season preview

Last season was a brilliant one for German football, with Dortmund and Bayern playing in the Champions League final, the bavarians winning the elusive european trophy after a 12 year wait. The Reds achieved a historical treble, also claiming the national league and cup. With the 2013-2014 Bundesliga season just around the corner, we take a look on what we can expect in german football in the following year and we conclude with some betting stats and tips for punters.

TITLE RACE

Everybody always has a fighting chance, but the title is obviously set to be a two-team affair between Bayern Munchen and Borussia Dortmund. The bavarians will open the show friday against Monchengladbach and, on paper, they look even stronger than last year, with Josep Guardiola as manager and Thiago Alcantara and Mario Gotze in their squad, but it remains to be seen how the coaching change will impact the team. Borussia, despite losing Gotze to the rivals, also looks to be a better team after the signings of  Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Keeping Lewandowski is also a huge plus, and the striker should quickly forget about his transfer request when he will start pounding goals as the main striker in Klopp`s system. This year could be his claim for superstar status. Bayern is priced at only 1.20 to win the title and that is really not fair. Dortmund already beat them 4-2 in the Supercup, and while that result is not necessarily relevant, it did show that Borussia will not back down from the challenge. The facts are that the champions have some questions to answer this season, while Dortmund already answered them last year. Manager stability and team cohesion represent advantages for them, and while Bayern still remains the favorite, backing Dortmund at odds 6.00 offered by Youwin is a valuable investment that with a little bit of chance could pay-off big time.

BEST OF THE REST

Even if Bayern Munchen and Borussia Dortmund seem to be locked in the first two places, the last podium spot presents huge stakes, as it is the last direct Champions League position in Bundesliga, with the 4th spot sending its owner in the unforgiving underworld of qualifications.

Bayer Leverkusen surprised a few people by finishing third last season, and are set for another year in the top 4 under young manager Samy Hyypia. But a repeat of last years` success will be tough, with no important players being signed over the summer break. More so, key-pieces Schurrle, Kadlec and Carvajal left to Chelsea, Fenerbahce and Real Madrid.

Schalke 04 will rely on the offensive firepower they have with Huntelaar, Farfan, Draxler and newcomer Szalai (from Mainz). Losing Afellay will hurt them, but The Royal Blues did well enough in the transfer market to be considered at least as strong as last season. With Leverkusen clearly weakened in the off-season, Schalke should manage to get the third place in the standings.

If Bayer does not collapse under the losses of Schurrle, Kadlec and Carvajal, the top 4 seems more predictable then ever in the Bundesliga, as no other teams have the strength to upset the odds.

EUROPEAN HOPEFULS

The 5th, 6th and potentially 7th place (depending on the cup final) are the ones leading in the Europa League, and some of the teams in the group of european hopefuls could even hope to challenge the 4th spot, like Freiburg and Eintracht Frankfurt did last season. Both these teams are hugely underestimated by the bookies, generally being considered to be outside the best 10 teams in Bundesliga. Look to back Freiburg and especially Frankfurt (which strengthened in the off-season) if the bookies will continue to rate them so lowly.

Elsewhere, Wolfsburg, Stuttgart, Monchengladbach, Hamburg and Hannover (most likely in that order) will be the teams that will hope to play european football this season. One can`t really guess which of these will manage to obtain those top spot, but Wolfsburg, Stuttgart and Borussia Monchengladbach seem to have an edge in terms of team quality, management and/or cohesion. It should be interesting.

RELEGATION BATTLE

Expect nothing else than a bottom-half of the table finish from Werder Bremen, Mainz, Nurnberg and Hoffenheim. These teams are in the ‘we just want to be on TV’ zone, as theoretically they should be able to stay safe from relegation, but certainly no more than that. The probability is that being so mediocre, and also with no motivation in the second part of the season, these teams will be the worst for the punters in this 1.Bundesliga season. One of them could still go down though.

The fight for survival looks to be an affair between Braunschweig, Augsburg and Hertha, with the teams mentioned in the previous paragraph also being long-shot contenders for relegation. Newcomers Braunschweig seem destined not only for the drop, but also for the last place, as they simply lack the quality required in the 1.Bundesliga. You can back them to finish in the last two with odds of 1.61 @ William Hill, as this bet seems to be a lock.

With one direct relegation spot and one relegation playoff spot still “up for grabs”, expect a tight fight between Hertha, Augsburg and one or two of Werder, Mainz, Nurnberg or Hoffenheim. Augsburg are a decent, hard-working team and Hertha is not bad either, so we could have a few surprises at the end of the rough battle for survival.

PREDICTIONS

Champions: Dortmund @ 6.00 at Youwin.

Champions League qualification: Bayern (2nd), Schalke (3rd), Leverkusen (4th)

Europa League qualification: Eintracht Frankfurt (5th), Stuttgart (6th), Wolfsburg (7th)

Relegation: Hoffenheim (16th), Hertha (17th), Braunschweig (18th @ 1.61 at William Hill).

Top scorer: Robert Lewandowski @ 4.50 at Ladbrokes.

Best player: Robert Lewandowski

BETTING INSIGHT

Things should not change much in the Bundesliga as far as betting is concerned, with the league establishing itself as one of the top two in the world. We will continue to see fast-paced action, and even an increase in spectacle after the successful campaigns Bayern and Dortmund had last year playing offensive football. About 60% of the games should finish with more than three goals, so Bundesliga should and will remain a favorite choice for punters when betting on goals. Over 2,5 with a 1-1 insurance could be a clever choice in some matches, as this result has been the most common last season, with more than 12% of the games finishing 1-1. Big handicaps will be covered in some cases by Bayern and Dortmund, so we shouldn`t back away from that kind of bets when we feel that the situation asks for it. Obviously, huge stakes on the big favorites are not recommended, as monumental upsets tend to happen in Bundesliga without any warnings or logic.

In the end, an honest league like the german one, with a fast rhythm, straight-forward football and few divings and time wasting episodes, should provide the football fan with top-class entertainment and the punters with profit and success.

Game on!