Makarova – Halep

Ekaterina Makarova is looking to make it two Grand Slam semifinals in a row, while Simona Halep will hope to improve on last years’ quarterfinal performance at the Australian Open.

Makarova is generally a moody player – she has a very offensive minded game, hitting powerful groundstrokes and she can’t always keep it under control. She lost in the second round at Sydney to Suarez Navarro earlier this year but she is playing at a whole different level here at the Aussie Open. The Russian has emerged as a true contender for Grand Slams lately and seems to bring her “A” game everytime it counts, like she did in the semifinal showing at the US Open last year. Here in Melbourne, Makarova cruised to this stage without dropping a single set against Mestach, Vinci, Pliskova and Goerges, actually destroying all of her opponents. Her performance against the emerging, big serving Pliskova in the third round was particularly impressive.

Halep is on a roll right now, still undefeated as she triumphed in her first tournament of the year in Shenzen and won all 4 matches here at the Open in straight sets (Knapp, Gajdosova, Mattek Sands, Wickmayer). The Romanian did show some blips in form, especially against Mattek Sands, but overall she`s looking very solid and might be the most consistent player on the tour right now with her error-free baseline game.

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Halep leads the H2H 1-0, winning the only meeting back in 2013 on hard courts. However, I`d say the matchup between the two is in Makarova’s favor – Halep always has a handicap against big hitters and while Makarova is not exactly Serena Williams, she likes to take control and hit her forehand flat and powerful.

Listen, Halep is one of the main favorites to win this, but this should be a really tough matchup for her. Makarova’s offensive shots will put the Romanian under big pressure and she usually can not handle that style of play. Last year at the Aussie Open quarterfinal she was blown off the court by Cibulkova (6-0 6-3) and her struggles against powerful players are well documented. On the bright side she already passed two big hitters in this tournament, Mattek Sands and Wickmayer, controling the matches. However, she was in big trouble every time those two put together a run of 3-4 points without making errors, especially against Mattek Sands. Additionally, Makarova is much better than those two right now.

The Romanian is still the favorite to go trough, but Makarova’s style of play and great form could well be enough to cause an upset here. My tip is Makarova to win – I`m staying away from handicaps as they are always risky in women’s tennis, straight Makarova win has the best value. I reckon 5 units is a reasonable bet to take on this pick. Prediction: Ekaterina Makarova – Simona Halep 7-6 6-4.

Pick: Makarova
Odds: 3.50 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 5
Possible profit: 12.5
Event date: 27 January