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Gael Monfils and Roger Federer will square off in a blockbuster 4th round clash at Roland Garros.
UPDATE, June 1 00:01 GMT +3. Match interrupted at 3-6, 6-4. To be continued Monday.
After starting the clay court season with a semifinal showing at Monte Carlo (beating Federer on the way), there were high expectation for Monfils to perform at Roland Garros. However, the Frenchman steadily declined after Monte Carlo, losing in the 3rd and 2nd round in his next two tournaments at the hands of Garcia Lopez and Granollers. The Frenchman took time off after Madrid to get fit and prepared for Roland Garros, but he didn’t play particularly well this week. Not bad, but not at his best level and he was fortunate to escape with wins in the five set thrillers with Schwartzman and Cuevas. Gael also lost a set to Eduard Roger Vasselin in the opening round.
Federer seems to have hit top form on clay at just the right time. He started the season playing poorly, but he reached the final in Rome two weeks ago and he’s yet to lose a set this week in Paris. Indeed, he had a very easy schedule with the likes of Falla, Granollers and Dzumhur, but Roger played good tennis and did the job without ever being in trouble. Wathing him play, I`m feeling better and better about my expectation of him having a great tournament due to a mix of accessible schedule and good form.
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Federer leads the Head 2 Head 8-4 (4-2 on clay), but Gael is one of the players who can push Roger deep if he`s on a good day. The last three matches were very tough for Roger – that 5 set win with match point saved in US Open, followed by a clear defeat in Davis Cup (Roger was injured) and finally the 4-6 6-7 loss in Monte Carlo.
I can’t see the Monte Carlo scenario coming even close to repeating itself – Federer was in poor form back than, while Monfils played his best tennis of the year. This time around things look a bit different, with Federer in excellent form not only this week, but starting with Rome. Gael on the other hand is struggling and has a lot of letdowns during matches. In the previous round against Cuevas he was outplayed for the first three sets and would have lost if he hadn’t snatched the 2nd set tiebreak.
Gael can also snatch a set today if he finds his best tennis for a long enough stretch, but that`s just about it. It’s really difficult to expect a Monfils in mediocre – decent form to realistically challenge a Federer in good form, so as long as Roger doesn’t drop his level, I actually expect him to win in straight sets. My tip is Federer to win with a 1,5 set handicap. Prediction: Gael Monfils – Roger Federer 6-7 4-6 5-7.
Bet365.com provides the best odds on the outright winner market at Roland Garros.
Pick: Federer -1,5 set hc
Odds: 1.75 @ Unibet
Stake: 8
Possible profit: 6
Event date: 31 May
