Betdistrict.com
A famous quote, controversially attributed to Albert Einstein, defines insanity as “doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results”.
So why are we, yet again, so quick in dismissing Rafa’s chances for a 10th trophy at the French Open? Why is Djokovic the overwhelming favorite for bookies and punters – such a favorite that you get better odds and better value from handicapping a single match than from betting on Nole to win it all? Is it just because people tend to want the head of the Champion, or is it really that Djokovic can not be defeated at the current time?
As things stand, the draw has decided the pair will meet in a blockbuster quarterfinal if both are to win their matches in the first 4 rounds – which will most likely happen.
Rafa smiles as draw pairs him against Nole in QF's. #RG15. pic.twitter.com/WHL1Tmlx6s
— Betdistrict (@betdistrict) May 22, 2015
Rafa Nadal had a wretched year so far and his results on clay were the worst in the last decade. He won a single title, in South America. He played a single final in Europe, being blown out by Murray in Madrid. He lost to Fognini (twice), Wawrinka, Djokovic and of course Murray. But this is not new to him – this happened last year as well. Some may jump and point to the Madrid title he won in 2014, but fact is he would have lost that final if Nishikori did not get injured in the second set. And, after poor performances, he ruined the competition in Paris, including a relatively straightforward 4 set win over Djokovic in the final.
Rafa has trained all year with Roland Garros in mind and the stakes have never been higher for him – an incredible 10th title, the chance to prove he is still one of the best and probably the last chance to go after Federer’s record of 17 Slams. It will be a career defining moment for Rafa. Does anybody question his wild motivation coming into the French Open? Roland Garros is not Barcelona, Monte Carlo or Rome. The surface is different and the ‘3 out of 5 sets’ format gives Rafa an edge – as he lost only 1 time on clay in 3 out of 5.
Of course, Nadal is not the same ‘sure-bet’ as in the past. But to be able to back him at odds 5.00? A 9 time reigning champion in Paris? There`s value all over that. Federer stated that Nadal, as long as he`s competitive, will always be the favorite at Roland Garros. Can you argue with history? On the other hand, you can back Djokovic to win it all with odds as high as 1.83 on the outright market, but I must say “no, thanks” to that offer.
Novak Djokovic has never won Roland Garros. He fell to Nadal six times in Paris, often losing the mental battle. He seemed to get closer in the 2013 semifinal thriller, only to get farther in the 2014 final, when, just like today, he seemed like the man to beat. And he did seem the man to beat in 2011 as well, but Federer ended one of the most impressive winning streaks in tennis history – and this is where it gets tougher for Djokovic.
Unlike Nadal (who really expects Rafa to lose against Berdych for example), Djokovic can lose to a fair number of players in Paris. Murray is in top form and surely he stands a chance. Wawrinka can take on anybody on his day, while Nishikori always gave Nole serious problems. And Federer, on this fast clay, can and WILL beat him, but only if the Swiss finds his absolute top form, which of course is a huge “If”. Why not Berdych, who was so close to dethroning Novak in Monte Carlo.
Nadal’s possible road to the final: Halys (R1), Dolgopolov (R2), Mannarino (R3), Sock / Dimitrov (R4), Djokovic (QF), Murray (SF), Federer / Wawrinka (F)
Djokovic’s possible road to the final: Nieminen (R1), Muller (R2), Tomic (R3), Gasquet (R4), Nadal (QF), Murray (SF), Federer / Wawrinka (F)
The expectations and pressure might be too much for Djokovic to handle. Whith a bunch of dangerous opponents and with Nadal still in the hunt, 2015 will not be Nole’s year. My prediction is that Rafa will win their quarterfinal clash. He has an easy 1st round match to get warmed up, a tough 2nd round to get him in real shape and than a reasonable road to the QF’s. Nole will not be tested until the meeting against Rafa and that will be his Achilles heel.
I don`t expect too many surprises aside for Djokovic’s exit. Murray is in great form, Ferrer should grind out a realtively easy draw and meet him in the quarters. Nishikori and Berdych are in top form. Federer and Wawrinka are always prone to upsets but their draw is extremely accessible and it just doesn`t look likely they can lose until the quarters – Monfils, Simon, Thiem, Garcia Lopez or Cuevas being the only threats. Outright tips and prediction from the quarterfinals onwards, below. All in all, this should be a Roland Garros to remember. And we’ll remember the same thing, over and over again – Rafa Nadal lifting the French Open trophy.
QUARTERFINALS:
Djokovic – Nadal
Murray – Ferrer
Nishikori – Berdych
Wawrinka – Federer
SEMIFINALS:
Nadal – Murray
Berdych – Federer
FINAL: Nadal – Federer
Sorry my friend but you look like an idiot now ..
not yet 😀
Wow! What a big job. The problem with the totes is they seem to have new colors every year! They look great the way they are…organized! I hope to do the same this year. Not a resolution, just a hope Good job there girl! 😀