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Guest post written by our reader and friend from Romania, Viorel Craciun, also writing at the romanian website Vechea Poveste (The Old Story).
Looking at the new MotoGP rules, we can say that bad things are happening, because some of the teams are getting some important benefits. The reason why Dorna (the owner of MotoGP) is doing this is to level the values between riders and increase the spectacle. But they are forgetting one thing: the law should be the same for everyone. Anyway, here are the old and new rules that apply in 2014-2015 season.
Shortly, from 2014, former CRT class transforms in “Open Class”, while the prototypes will be reclassified as the new “Factory Class”. So, teams not directly entered by one of the major manufacturers as a factory team or satellite outfit, will be categorized in the so-called “Open class” (the former CRT class). Whilst all factory teams will have to use the spec Magneti Marelli hardware with their own software, the “Open class”, regardless of its mechanical make-up, will run the spec hardware as well as software. From a mechanical standpoint, the “Open class” in 2014 will consists of full-blown prototypes (with Magneti Marelli software), prototype chassis with factory-spec engines, as well as heavily tuned production engines in prototype chassis.
Basically, the maximum engine displacement permitted on a MotoGP bike is 1000 cc with a maximum of four cylinders and maximum bore of 81 mm – 2-stroke engines are not allowed. A maximum of 5 engines may be used by each permanent contracted rider for all the scheduled races of the season. But, starting this season the “Open Class” bikes will be allowed to use 12 motors. Another important difference between the two sides is in how much fuel a team can use. So, the capacity of the tank rises to 24 liters for “Open Class”, while the capacity of the “Factory Class” bikes remains on 20 liters.
Now here is the latest special rule, which s stated only in favor of the Ducatti team. A manufacturer who has not achieved a win in dry conditions in the previous year (a manufacturer, meaning… Ducatti), or a new manufacturer entering the championship, could enter under the “Factory class” option with all the concessions available to the “Open class”; these benefits will be reduced in case of a determined number of podiums or wins.
2014 MotoGP specifications
Using these advantages, Aleix Espargaro managed to run the qualification session, until he nervously crushed and get back where he belongs, in the tale of the group.
Now, getting to the point it must be said from the beginning that a bet on the first race of the season involves a great risk. So it’s wiser to choose one low stake risky bet instead of putting a high stake on an apparently sure bet. What does that mean? That means not betting on favorites, but on the outsiders.
In tonight’s COMMERCIAL BANK GRAND PRIX OF QATAR, the favorite is the World Champion Marc Marquez, with 2.25 odds to win. Marquez bounced back from a broken leg just six weeks ago to claim the first pole position of 2014 at Losail, but after the session he declared: “I don’t have full power in my leg so I have to use more arms and this is quite hard over long distance.” Indeed, he hardly put his broken leg on the floor. So, thinking that he demonstrated a surprising maturity for its age on the previous season, I presume Marquez not to force and to wait for the next race (over 3 weeks!) to show his complete qualities. Of course, there is a slightly chance that he’s bluffing, but we can’t rely on this when we bet on real money, can we?
Well, if Marquez won’t win, the who will? Lorenzo and Rossi are obviously out of form and their bikes are not in order, as Lorenzo himself said it the past days. So, we will eliminate them from our analysis. We have to watch the qualification order and go back to the new Dorna rules. Second seed is Alvaro Bautista (Honda, odds 9.00), third is Bradley Smith (Yamaha 17.00) and forth is Andrea Dovizioso (Ducatti, odds 21.00). The odds on the Italian, who rides a “Factory class” bike using the benefits of the “Open class,” are very generous and, thinking of the fact that Dovizioso is an experimented, talented, hard to pass over rider, I guess it’s worth to place a bet on him. One low stake on his victory or one higher on he to be placed (1, 2, 3, odds 4.40). The same words go to Alvaro Bautista (1, 2, 3, odds 2.50), whose manner of piloting put his client Honda bike on the second place of the qualification session, but I prefer Dovi instead because his almost double price. It’s risking time, what the hell?
Now, for those who follow the moto competitions, here’s another tip: you bet on the other classes, where the rules are the same as in the previous session and the riders are well known.
On Moto 2 Class, Esteve Rabat is the big favorite (odds 2.10) after Pol Espargaro and Scott Redding moved on to MotoGP. He is mature and consistent.
On Moto 3 Class, you can choose Alex Marquez, second placed on qualification session, after his teammate Alex Rins (odds 3.00). The younger brother of Marc Marques is in constant progress and the bets on him are valuable: 4.50 on victory, 1.57 on 1, 2, 3 position.
Note: the whole theory may be equaled to zero if it’s raining on Sunday at Losail Circuit.
PREDICTIONS (all odds by Bet365).
Pick: Andrea Dovizioso to be placed @ 4.50
Stake: 4
Pick: Andrea Dovizioso to win the race @ 21.00
Stake: 1
Pick: Esteve Rabat to win the race @ 2.1
Stake: 7
Pick: Alex Marquez to be placed @ 1.57
Stake: 10
Pick: Alex Marquez to win the race @ 4.5
Stake: 2
Combo: Alvaro Bautista-Espargaro Aleix 1 (1.72), Andreea Dovizioso-Bradley Smith (1,90), Alex Marquez-Jack Miller (1.83)
