Netherlands – Costa Rica

Netherlands will take on the surprise package of Costa Rica, hoping to put an end to the fairytale run of the Central Americans in this last quarterfinal of the World Cup.

After a fantastic display in the group stages, where they dominated strong sides like Chile and Spain to take 9 points from 3 matches, Netherlands had big problems against Mexico. Down 0-1 with 2 minutes to go in regular time, Holland produced an amazing comeback to win with goals in the 88th and 90+4 minutes. Van Gaal was spot on when he took off van Persie and sent Huntelaar in, so the dutch manager holds a great deal of merit for the win – a win that was deserved in the end, and which proved Netherlands is really at the top of its game, as Mexico played excellent football in the World Cup and was a very tough opponent.

Costa Rica’s heroic performance against Greece assured that the South Americans will go down as one of the nicest surprises in World Cup history. After proving they are the real deal by gaining 7 points in a nightmare group with Italy, England and Uruguay, Costa Rica showed character to dispatch a greek side that played with an extra-man for 1 hour and also had the momentum by equalizing in the 92nd minute of regular time. Fantastic mental strength for Costa Rica to win it at penalties in the end, but all in all they did not replicate their performance in the group stages: they were defensive and after the sending off in the second half they defended like crazy and were a little bit lucky to prevail. Costa Rica ended the match in a deplorable physical state.

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Team news & lineups

Netherlands won`t be able to count on Nigel De Jong, while Costa Rica will have to do without Oscar Duarte. Ravshan Irmatov from Uzbekistan will be the referee.

Holland: Cillesen – Verhaegh, Vlaar, De Vrij, Blind – Kuyt, Clasie, Wijnaldum; Sneijder – Robben, Van Persie.

Costa Rica: Navas – Gamboa, Acosta, González, Umaña, Díaz – Ruis, Borges, Tejeda, Bolaños – Campbell.

I really gave a lot of thought before judging this excellent Costa Rica side negatively, but the reality is that they showed their limits against Greece. I expected better from them against a mediocre side, but they barely kept the game balanced in the first half, got a lucky goal, and then totally broke appart after the sending off – after all, a sign of low quality. Netherlands looked very solid in this tournament, even in the game against Mexico, and they should be able to take care of business today, covering a 1 goal handicap as well. By far their biggest advantage is in the fitness department. The Costa Ricans were dead-tired in extra time against Greece, they made a huge effort and were barely able to stand on their feet, they could not even get a good touch on the ball. I was honestly surprised that they were able to kick it so well at penalties. Indeed, Costa Rica had a lot of time to recover, but these players are not used to playing so much, so often and against such great team. Clearly the group stage games, running around after top class opposition, took a lot out of them, and I suspect that the Greece encounter took everything they had left.

Expect Holland to dominate this from the start, get a goal sooner or later, and then run away with the win after Costa Rica crumbles in the second half. My tip is Netherlands to win with -1,25 asian handicap. Prediction: Netherlands – Costa Rica 3-0.

Pick: Netherlands (-1,25 Asian Handicap)
Odds: 2.35 @ Sbobet
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 13.5
Event date: 5 July