Djokovic – Nadal

The blockbuster quarterfinal that everybody was talking about even before the tournament started is now upon us. Djokovic and Nadal square off with history on the line, as whoever wins this is fully expected to lift the trophy as well – even though Wawrinka looks like a really dangerous contender after his QF win over Federer.

Djokovic never had a better chance to complete the career Grand Slam and he`s viewed as a huge favorite by most experts in the tennis world. It`s hard to argue with that, as Djokovic is having an unbelievable season, he has yet to lose on clay this season and has not lost a set in this tournament. However, Djokovic was not tested to the slightest bit with opponents like Nieminen, Kokkinakis, Muller or Gasquet.

Nadal came into this tournament as a massive underdog for the first time in his Roland Garros career. While he did not deserved to be the favorite due to his poor performances prior to Paris, including on clay, there was a sense that Rafa was written off to early (more on this in our Roland Garros preview. And he proved that by playing very good tennis in the first 4 rounds. He did lose a set in the 4th round against Sock, but he had a much tougher draw than Djokovic, meeting a couple of dangerous opponents (Sock, Almagro). Aside for the lost set against the American, Rafa won all other sets 6-4 or less and indeed looked much better than in the previous months.

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Nadal leads the Head 2 Head 23-20, but in the last few years Djokovic started figuring him out and he won 5 of the last 6 meetings. However, the only Rafa win in this timespan was in the Roland Garros final last year. Rafa beat Djokovic 6 times out of 6 tries in Paris and leads the Head 2 Head on clay 14-5.

It`s difficult to argue with Djokovic being a favorite today, but the match should be much closer than the odds suggest and as a personal opinion, I actually expect Rafa to win. Roland Garros remains Rafa’s castle, beating him here is more difficult than anywhere else. It`s a different tournament, the surface is perfect for Rafa and he lost just once in the 3 out of 5 sets format on clay. He looked sharp in the opening rounds and had time to improve his game, we could see his forehand improved and going much deeper now.

Djokvic is imperial right now, do doubt about that, but the fact that he has not been tested, coupled with the huge pressure to win, might be enough to kill his quest for the career Grand Slam yet again. Expect a tight clash with some excellent shotmaking and huge desire from both players, but my money is on Rafa dealing better with the pressure and expectations and defending his RG empire against the mighty Serbian. He did it last year in somewhat similar circumstances and one thing is certain – he can not be counted out on these courts.

My tip is Nadal to win. Prediction: Novak Djokovic – Rafael Nadal 4-6 6-2 7-5 6-7 4-6.

Bet365.com provides the best odds on the outright winner market at Roland Garros.

Pick: Nadal
Odds: 3.35 @ Unibet
Stake: 7
Possible profit: 16.45
Event date: 3 June