Federer – Djokovic

Novak Djokovic is the odds-on favorite in this blockbuster Indian Wells final against Roger Federer, but one might wonder if that is really the case considering how these two players this year and in the recent weeks. I reckon I`ll be shorter than usual with this preview, as I have already covered the potential final on friday, so you might also want to read Why will Roger Federer win Indian Wells 2014 before (or after) this analysis.

Federer has clearly proved in this tournament that he is back in top form after already showing great signs of improvement in the first two months of the season. Last week Federer won Dubai after defeating Djokovic in the semifinals and Berdych in the final and he went on to show some brilliant tennis here at the Indian Wells, not losing a single set and dismantling two dangerous opponents in the quarters and semis (Anderson, Dolgopolov), barely losing a few games. The 6-3 6-1 win against the in-form Dog was particularly impressive. Indeed, Federer did not play any top 10 guys so far in this tournament, but the players he faced were in excellent form and Roger proved last week that he can defeat the top guys, so no worries here. The swiss is particularly impressive in his movement on the court and I have to say I don`t recall ever seeing him so fast and fit. His serve is also working great, which is a big indicative of his game, and his backhand side is stable, helping him to limit unforced errors.

Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle.

Djokovic did not have the best year by his standards so far, losing in the AO quarters to Wawrinka and in the Dubai semifinals to Federer. The Serb was also extremely shaky in the first three matches here at IW, winning 2-1 against A. Gonzalez and Indian Wells after barely escaping losing a set in his first match against Hanescu. However, Novak improved his game in the quarters to easily defeat Benneteau and looked good in the semis against Isner (7-5 6-7 6-1). Despite losing a set and making a couple of errors along the way, the win is very good considering that Nole always had big problems against the big-serving american. All in all, Djokovic seems to be improving his level right now but he is still not at his best.

The H2H is 17-15 for Federer and despite the close score, it`s well documented that Roger is a bad matchup for the Serbian. I don`t really recall Djokovic beating an in-form Federer too many times, even on clay and even when Novak was at his absolute best – most of Nole`s wins were against an out of form Federer and even then he often had problems. The swiss’ offensive game has always been an issue for Djokovic and the fact that Federer seems at the top of his offensive game right now is a good sign for him prior to the final.

As I also stated in the earlier mentioned article I think Federer will win this as he is in much better form, on a good surface for him, his game clicks in the exact way needed to beat Djokovic and he just beat Novak a week ago. As we know, everything can happen in sport, but one thing is for sure: the odds are way, way off here and knowing how the bookies work, I bet they are aware as well. You have to consider a lot of stats and information when creating odds, you can`t do it by opinion, so the numbers probably added up at around 1.50 for Djokovic here. The bookies probably added a bit of personal input for an 1.55-1.60, and there you have it. There`s no way Djokovic is the favorite in this one, not at this price and I expect a heavy drop in odds until match-time, so this will most likely also work well for trading. All in all, great value bet and I reckon it will also be a winner. My tip is Federer to win and I`ll be all over this with maximum stakes and confidence. Prediction: Roger Federer – Novak Djokovic 6-3 7-6.

Pick: Roger Federer
Odds: 2.45 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 14.50
Event date: 16 March