Why will Roger Federer win the 2014 Indian Wells

As we speak, Federer is leading South African Kevin Anderson 4-3 in the first set with no breaks of serve. I will publish this article even if he will end up losing this match (which I expect to be a tough one), though I might change the current title of “Why will Roger Federer win Indian Wells 2014” :).

After a resurgence in form, backed up by the Dubai title last week, Roger so far got past Paul Henri Mathieu, Dmitry Tursunov and Tommy Haas without losing a set. What makes him a favourite to lift the 2014 Indian Wells at outright odds as high as 3.66 right now at Betfair?

Roger Federer

• There`s no doubt that Federer is back in form and that was obvious even in the Australian Open, despite the bad loss to rival Nadal
• Roger is serving great, a big indicative that his game is working.
• The movement is the best I have ever seen from Federer.
• Unforced errors are kept at a minimum and bakhand is stable
• I`m seeing some amazing shotmaking right now from him against Anderson, a really tough opponent, as Roger is easily neutralizing his devastating serve. This really looks like vintage Federer – motivated, error-free and accurately offensive. Plus amazing numbers at the net.

Opponents

• If he gets past Anderson (6-5 in the first, no breaks) he will meet Dolgopolov and than the likes of Djokovic / Benneteau / Isner / Gulbis
• Dolgopolov will never trouble Federer in a big stakes match, no matter how good his form is. He is the same type of player like Roger, so he does not have the weapons to surprise him tactically. Quality will make the difference, and “the Dog” is the most inconsistent between the two. Dolgopolov will keep it close for one set due to insane shotmaking, but he`ll fade away as nobody can keep hitting winners down the line the whole match
• Isner is way too out of form to be considered a threat (he himself stated that he is not 100% fit) and Federer loves big-servers
• Gulbis can always be a problem if he finds his absolute best level but he lacks experience and consistency. Like Dolgopolov, he can`t surprise Federer tactically. It would be one of the most ilogical upsets in decades if Gulbis were to win his first Masters against Federer in the final.
• Benneteau is a non-factor. He can win a set against the best if he finds his best level, but he`ll probably get beat by Djokovic in the quarters anyway. Another guy who plays similar tennis to Federer, so he can`t really find answers against the swiss.
• Djokovic is Federer`s favorite opponent from the so called “Top 4”. Fed holds the matchup against the Serb and he just beat him at Dubai one week ago. The serbian is playing really bad tennis right now for his standards with unforced errors and no length on his shots. For whatever reason, he`s far from his best at the moment, but he might get to the final due to lack of opposition. If Roger mantains his solid serve, stable backhand and low number of unforced errors, there`s now way Djokovic with his current form can find a way to overturn the match-up. It should end up similar to that 6-0 7-6 Cincinnati final 2 years ago.

In the meantime, Federer has dismantled Anderson with 7-5 6-1, despite (and ruining) my pick on Anderson covering the spread. Scratch that 3.66 odds noted in the beginning of the article, as the price is bound to be much lower right now, though Nole will probably remain the guy to beat accoring to the bookies. Lower odds are still worth it though – my call is that Roger will go on and win this one. He holds the matchup edge against all the players left in the tournament, and Djokovic is the only one who proved he can overcome it. However, Novak to be considered a favorite is laughable with his current form, he`s just not hitting the ball hard and long enough, he is making errors and he is pretty far away from his usual level of play – not lastly, as, I said, in a final with Federer he would have to overcome the styles of play which are not suiting him, which is highly unlikely considering the current form of the two. Don`t get me wrong, Novak is still a beast, but he`s not in top form and he does not look like he`s improving his level – he can`t take half measures against an in-form and offensive Federer.

Update:

Whatever odds over 3.00 you can find, my input is that it is worth 10 units. I`d say Unibet has gone insane, but I guess they will lower that 3.60 sooner rather than later.

Lastly, I also want to give a thumbs up to our partners at betting-tipsters who are aggregating, daily, the best picks on the web and have been with us since the beginning. Cheers guys!