Roma – Catania

Roma will be under huge pressure to deliver against Catania, as Juventus has put 5 points between them and the Giallorossi for the first place in the Serie A standings. There will be a maximum stakes bet on this one.

Roma was unlycky to concede a late equialiser last round against Milan at San Siro, thus recording the 5th draw in the last 6 matches – and putting another dent in their title chances after starting the season with 10 consecutive wins. However, Roma’s small crises has clearly ended, as the last two games saw the Giallorossi return to their previous top form. The hosts won against Fiorentina and should have also won against AC Milan in two spirited performances. Gervinho is back in the lineup for some time and Totti also came back last round. You can read more about Roma in my article about why you should back Roma to win the Scudetto (which I am still backing by the way).

Catania had a season to forget so far, and things do not look likely to improve soon for the Sicilian side. With just 10 points in 18 rounds, Catania is on the bottom spot in the table. They have a horrible attack and their form is obviously very poor, with 3 losses and 1 draw in the last 4 matches. Catania lost all their 8 matches on the road this season with a goal difference of 5-21. They have always been poor when playing away from home, and considering their form this season, it`s only natural they have such a horrific road reacord.

Bet with the best odds and highest limits at Pinnacle.

Team news & lineups

Roma will get Pjanic and Totti back in the starting lineup, but they do have some very important missings for this one: Strootman, De Rossi, Boriello, Balzaretti and possibly Maicon (though he should play). The hosts will bviously have to mix things up in the midfield area, but luckily they have solid cover there. Catania can`t count on the services of Bellusci, Almiron and Spolli.

Roma: De Sanctis – Maicon, Benatia, Castan, Dodo – Florenzi, Bradley, Pjanic – Ljajic, Totti, Gervinho

Catania: Frison – Peruzzi, Gyomber, Legrottaglie, Capuano – Izco, Guarente, Plasil – Castro, Barrientos – Bergessio

I feel that Roma is undervalued a little bit here due to their recent draws and missings for this game. Their form has vastly improved in the last two games and the missings of Strootman + De Rossi, while important, can be covered. Bradley has been excellent this season and Florenzi is one of Roma`s best players, with perfect ability to step in in midfield (usually playing forward / winger). Roma had a hard time against Catania in the recent years, but this season the two teams are totally changed, so the H2H is not to relevant. Roma to win at ~1.25 is too high, while the handicap market also offers attractive odds.

I can see the hosts winning this one in style. Roma has been very good all season and in the last two matches they were at their best, or at least close to their best. The defense is rock solid with only 7 goals conceded, and after allowing 2 from Milan last round, surely Roma`s back line will be extra-careful. This will probably result in a clean sheet against the worst offense in the league (by far). Catania is playing very poorly, they can`t find a rhythm and do not have the quality to compete against the top sides. Their abysmal away record is the icing on the cake, as they lost their road games with an average of 2 goals difference per match. Roma has not covered a 1 goal handicap in the last 8 games, but surely this is their biggest chance to do it. Not only they are good and in-form, but they have the matchup and meet an out of sorts opponent. Motivation is also there for sure. My tip is Roma to win and cover the 1,5 handicap. Initially I was thinking about 1.75, but I will go with high stakes and I want a full profit in case of a 2-0 win. Roma – Catania 3-0.

Pick: Roma (-1,5)
Odds: 1.81 @ Pinnacle
Stake: 10
Possible profit: 8.10
Event date: 22 December

Editor Facts

• Rostick`s last 7 picks saw 6 won and 1 void
• Rostick is 2 for 2 in tips on Roma this season (both tips being in Roma`s last two games)