Scotland – Wales

The Six Nations return after a one week break and the first match of the weekend will see Scotland take on Wales at Murrayfield. Both teams have one win and one loss following the first two rounds.

Scotland’s improvement over the last few years has been undeniable and they entered the Six Nations with high expectations. The excellent (albeit a bit lucky) first round win over Ireland elevated Scotland to title challengers and they started off the next match, in France, in excellent fashion. However, an injury to talismanic captain Greig Laidlaw helped the French to pull off a close win in front of their own fans. The 22-16 scoreline flattered France, as the game was dead even until the final minutes.

Wales didn`t have the best time in the November friendlies, with their performance being mostly below expectations. Nevertheless, they did beat South Africa and Argentina even by playing poorly, which says a lot about the strength of this Welsh team. In the Six Nations Wales started with a routine 26 point win in Rome (even if Italy led at half time) and lost 16-21 at home to England in the previous round. That was a game Wales should have won, they were the better side and only a couple of lucky breaks allowed England to win their 16th match in a row.

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Team news & lineups:

Captain Greg Laidlaw got injured for Scotland against France and that was a big reason for which they lost that game. Laidlaw will be out for this clash and that will be a problem for the Scots. Strauss and Maitland are also new injuries for Scotland, while a couple of other players have missed training. On the bright side, Wilson returns.

Wales has a healthy squad and will get a boost from the return of George North.

Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Tommy Seymour, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Alex Dunbar, 11 Tim Visser, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ali Price, 8 Ryan Wilson, 7 John Hardie, 6 John Barclay (c), 5 Jonny Gray, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 Fraser Brown, 1 Gordon Reid

Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb, 8 Ross Moriarty, 7 Justin Tipuric, 6 Sam Warburton, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 4 Jake Ball, 3 Tomas Francis, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Rob Evans

This is the best team Scotland had in many years, they probably have the best wing play in the Six Nations and in normal circumstances they can beat anybody, as proven against Ireland in the first round. Wales is still a slightly better side overall, but at home the Scots would be small favorites to win if they were fully healthy.

However, the Scottish side doesn`t have the depth of other teams like Ireland, England or Wales. Their bench is a little bit on the weak side and missing at least 3 key players in key areas of the pitch will weaken them considerably.

The absence of Laidlaw will particularly hurt Scotland, as his leadership and kicking ability are key for the way this team plays. That was obvious against France, Scotland suffered when he came off. In a match likely to be decided by accurate kicking and penalties, Laidlaw`s absence alone could be the difference between winning and losing. Other absences will hurt the Scottish scrum and Wales should dominate the forward play.

Expect a lot of kicking and forward play in this game, exactly the areas in which Scotland is weakened by injuries and where Wales excel. The Scots will be desperate to push the ball out wide, but they don`t have the best platform to do that, since their scrum and forwards will be dominated and Laidlaw isn`t there to get the ball out wide quickly. Also, Wales defended very well out wide against England.

Also look for Wales to be the better side in the final 20 minutes or so, as their bench is much better and Scotland does have a tendency to bottle it late in games anyway, as they did last week in France.

The Welsh are playing well, they are a slightly stronger team, they are healthy and they could definitely beat even a full strength Scotland team, in Scotland. Given the injuries and the circumstances, the Welsh become strong favorites and should not miss on the victory here – especially as they have always dominated Scotland, winning the last 9 H2H meetings – including 4 at Murrayfield.

If Scotland was healthy I`d back them to cover a +1 point handicap, but with all these injuries it`s highly unlikely they can be at their best. An experienced and healthy Wales team, coming off a great showing against England, should take advantage and maintain their title hopes.

My tip is Wales to win. Prediction: Scotland – Wales 18 – 22.

Pick: Wales
Odds: 1.83 @ 1xBet
Stake: 9
Possible profit: 7.47
Event date: 25 February