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I wanted to write this prior to the World Cup, but as you may know, we had so many World Cup previews, that I just wasn’t able to bring it live before the start of the competition. I regret it just a bit, ’cause I was sure Spain will fail in Brazil (didn`t expect them to go out so early though) and I fancied Germany a lot, so some value is lost, but there is still money to be made on the outright market. And what better time to predict who will win the World Cup than hours away from the start of the knockout stage?

My prediction? Germany wins the World Cup, with Argentina as my second choice.

Germany (odds 5.00 @ Unibet) – listen, the Panzers are one of the most cohesive and well organized teams in the World Cup, they have stability on the bench and they boost individual quality as well. Group results don`t impact my choice too much, as for example the 4-0 against Portugal was exaggerated, but the 2-2 draw against Ghana saw great football from the Germans. The matches played so far only confirmed that Germany is in good shape – nothing less and nothing more than expected. We have question marks regarding all teams involved (form, quality, cohesiveness, etc.). I don`t have a particular one involving Germany.

Argentina (odds 5.75 @ Bwin) – two big reasons to go with Argentina as a ‘dark horse’ if they can be named that way, leaving aside their well-known quality, of course. Firstly, Messi has been unbelievable so far and you have to admit that he could be a deciding factor against anyone, at anytime. Secondly, Argentina is in the second half of the draw and apparently has an accessible road to the final, with Netherlands and Belgium as the only top class opponents along the way. Also, it`s nice to have an option on the other side of the draw if Germany fails.

Opposition

The opposition is a big reasons for which I`m going with Germany to win the World Cup, the challenging teams simply do not pose much of a threat in my opinion.

Brazil (4.00 @ Youwin) simply does not have the quality to be the top favorite in the outright market. I don`t trust them, Neymar has never performed on the big stage aside maybe the Confederations Cup. The offensive setup is just not good enough and it has never been tested against top class opposition. Also, Brazil has a nightmare draw and could realistically be out of the competition today, in the Round 16 match against Chile. If they wouldn’t have been hosts I would rule them out completely, because there are a handful of teams better than them in this World Cup.

Netherlands (9.00 @ Youwin) – No! The group results mean nothing, it is a current occurrence for Netherlands to play great football at the start of tournaments, score a lot of goals, and then fold when you least expect it. Their inexperienced defense will betray them somewhere along the way, it could even happen against Mexico.

France (9.00 @ Youwin) must be taken into account, they showed great football both in the group stages and prior to the World Cup. The team is very well balanced and Benzema seems able to carry the pressure of being the go-to man, also they should easily win their Round 16 match against Nigeria. But do they have the quality to take on Germany in the quarters? I doubt it. France still misses some pieces and they might just lack the luck of the draw and the star power needed to reach the semifinals.

Colombia (19.00), Belgium (23.00) and other dark horses – Listen, upsets can always happen and who knows if one of these teams can win the World Cup? But it would betray logic, and all we can do is play the probabilities. Colombia has played great football but they have tough matches ahead of them and I`ll just ride the lack of quality to make an argument against them. Belgium? No way, they are too young, they don`t have good chemistry and were very shaky in the group stages despite getting 3 wins. Chile (36.00) is a good side but did not impress me too much, they got some lucky breaks and the same can be said about Uruguay (34.00), which will also miss Suarez a lot and will probably get knocked out by Colombia today. The rest of the teams enter in the “miracle” category.

Taking a moment and looking at the possibilities, you might end up thinking “who can win this aside of Germany and Argentina?”. If you do not believe that Brazil can go all the way, the choices narrow down a lot, Netherlands and France don`t seem to have more than an outside shot, and it becomes pretty clear that Germany to win or Argentina to win are very solid bets. I`m sticking with my tip on Germany ahead of the South Americans though – they are the better TEAM, faster, more complete. The odds for the outright market are still very good as well, so it could well be worth a shot on one of these two teams (or both).

World Cup final
Germany – Argentina 2-1 (A.E.T)
Messi’s goal early in the second half brings Argentina inches closes to winning the World Cup trophy in Brazil, but Schweinsteiger equalizes with 10 minutes to go and Klose sends the German fans into raptures in overtime to book the first place for Germany. The Panzers will win it because of better cohesiveness, effectiveness and discipline.