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Yield is a key factor in sports betting, being arguably the most important coefficient in calculating your profit effectively, more relevant than sheer profit or tips won / tips lost.  However, many people are unaware of what exactly Yield is and I have been questioned myself over the years about its meaning. The analysis is really very simple and I will cover it as concise and easy to understand as I can below.

Yield in sportsbetting is nothing else than the return of investment (ROI), showing your exact percentage of profit or losses compared with your investments. It`s dead simple actually – say you bet 10 dollars on odds of 1.50 and win: you will get a total of 15 dollars, from which 5 dollars are your profit. You invested 10 dollars, so your 5 dollar profit means a Yield of 50%.

One simple way to calculate yield is the following formula:

Yield (return of investment) = Total Profit / Total Stakes * 100

Exemplifying our example above with 5 dollars won on a 10 dollar bet, we will get 50% Yield:

5 / 10 * 100 = 0,5 * 100 = 50

Let`s see an example for our current top tipsters and their statistics.

If you want to keep reference of your bets and profits in an effective way, you just can`t do it without calculating the yield. Also, when analyzing or comparing tipsters on betting websites like Betdistrict, it`s important to view Yield as the deciding factor. Of course, other statistics like total profit, picks won and picks lost matter as well – a positive yield will likely be higher if a tipsters has less picks than another, a normal rule of percentages.

Wrapping it up, I want to say that there are many betting tips websites out there who are boosting Yield of over 100% for their tipsters – you will see everybody with 120%, 150% and so on. Do not take that seriously, they are using a wrong formula of calculating the return of investment (surely an honest mistake) which basically adds 100% to the real Yield.

Like pretty much all popular activities that deal with money and human emotions, sportsbetting will always determine superstitions and myths which eventually become guidelines for certain punters. There are a lot of cliches that over time have become accepted as rules by most sport bettors, so in this article we`ll take a look at some of the most common sportsbetting myths to determine whether they are true or false, and why.

1. Don`t bet on first place against the last place.

A common misconception, it comes from the fact that punters expect these kind of matches to be “sure bets”. Obviously, the odds are low and there will be surprises, so when it happens it has a higher impact on the bettor than other losses. Verdict: FALSE.

2. First couple of rounds in leagues are dangerous

Not to be said that you can`t win in the first rounds of leagues, or that the number of surprises is necessarily higher – however, you are exposing yourself to a higher degree of risk because you can not have the absolute best information – and that`s not intelligent betting. Verdict: TRUE.

3. You can`t make profit betting on favorites

While it`s totally true that the value usually lies on the underdog and that the favorites have artificially lowered odds, a punter can surely find opportunities on favorites and make a profit betting on them. Additionally, bettors nowadays are getting smarter and smarter, so it`s not unusual to see odds on big favorites rising. Me, I`m not a big fan of heavy favorites, but this myth is false (like most “you won`t win like this / you will win like that” myths). Verdict: FALSE.

4. Don`t bet on teams that have no motivation

I just love this myth, as it determines situations in which you get amazing prices. This superstition comes from the fact that punters always want their teams to be 100% determined and to suffer more than them if the bet loses. Of course there are different situations and many times it`s true you should stay away, but there are a lot of cases in which unmotivated teams get amazing odds and they will win the game because they want to, and because they can. “Oh, they need a win, they will win / they don`t need a win, they won`t win” is FALSE.

5. You can`t win using “easy money”

Easy money means betting big stakes on very low odds. This is very similar to the No.3 point – while it`s a very risky method, it`s not impossible to win as long as you inform yourself as good as possible and not use your whole balance to bet on a game. Verdict: FALSE.

6. European matches affect league matches

In today`s football, fitness is often the difference between winning and losing. It`s well documented that teams with european duties perform worse domestically than similar teams without european duties. Whether you`re on the back of an European game or you have one coming up, you hold a higher risk of being upset in the league. Verdict: TRUE.

7. Bookmakers fix matches

Objectively speaking this is probably the biggest misconception about sports betting, and there are two big, clear cut reasons for that. Firstly, bookmakers have no reason to fix matches – they are the biggest losers. If you somehow wrap your head around it and are left with the opinion that they will actually win trough a fix, remember this: the key to a successful betting company is integrity, and that`s a fact. Even a rumor about a sportsbook fixing a match would likely ruin that bookie forever. Verdict: FALSE.

8. Bookies want to rip you off

A common myth, but dead wrong. Bookies will be slightly better off if Arsenal loses to Stoke, but it`s not a must. The money comes from the payout percentage, the “juice”. A tight match should have odds 2.00 – 2.00, but at 1.93 – 1.93 the bookie will always win, regardless of the outcome. When odds go down, it`s because of the bets placed. Verdict: FALSE.

9. Fixed matches mania

Yes, some matches are fixed. However, if you`re a guy that`s shouting “fix” everytime a player loses from 6-4 5-3 up in tennis, you are just a sore loser. There are punters who believe 50% of their losses are fixed matches, as the bet does not go according to plan (heavy favorite loses, sometimes after leading or in the last minute). Take a chill pill, things like these happen in sports, and you probably are suspecting the wrong games anyway, as fixed matches are not carried out to blatantly produce suspicions – and surely not settled in the last second or from match point down. Verdict: FALSE.

10. I am unlucky / This can only happen to me

Cut the crap – no, you are not. Luck has nothing to do with professional betting, and you will find that over time “luck” and “unluck” will balance eachother out. Trust me, I`ve had my share of epic bad luck, but we tend to remember only the unlucky moments, and not the good luck. I won`t deny that there might be 1% of bettors that probably can`t get a break and might need 100 years for their luck to even out, but most likely that is not you. Verdict: FALSE.

11. I`m scared to bet on odds that are going up

The mentality is simple, punters feel that the bookies “must know something”. However, in 90% of the cases lines are moved by other punters, not the bookies. There can be situations and situations, but if you make a proper analysis and inform yourself, you should actually be thrilled that the odds are going up. Verdict: FALSE

12. Betting systems will make you money / betting systems will ruin you

Both approaches are wrong. While it`s true that there is not (and never will be) a guaranteed system to win in betting, every punter can forge his own destiny. Example: Kelly Criteria won`t guarantee you money, but you surely stand a chance to win win using it. Verdict: FALSE.

13. Smart punters bet on singles

While I never discard any betting method and I think that money can be made betting on accumulators, the math is simple – singles give you the best chance of winning. When you bet multiple events you lose more and more value (the bookie “juice” multiplies) while also decreasing your chances to win. See Singles vs. Combos. Verdict: TRUE.

While I have never been a fan of Louis van Gaal and naturally did not approve his glamorous appointment as the new manager of Manchester United, even I could not have envisioned the horrific start of the season for the Red Devils. With just 2 points in 3 rounds against low profile opposition and coming after a historical 0-4 defeat to MK Dons, fans are wondering if the Dutchman is really the man to replace Sir Alex Ferguson and the odds for him to be sacked are dropping every day. While I`m sure this has been covered in many papers and blogs, here are Betdistrict`s own 7 Reasons for which we think van Gaal will not succeed in Manchester.

1. Is van Gaal really a top class manager?
While the Dutchman has a lot of accolades under his belt which can not be denied (including the 3rd place finish in the 2014 World Cup), the fact is he had a couple of truly monumental failures in his career. We can mention here missing the 2002 World Cup with Netherlands (knocked out by Portugal and the Republic of Ireland) and guiding Barcelona to the relegation zone, there was also a horrible season with Alkmaar and getting sacked from Bayern Munchen. These were all big time failures and prove van Gaal is far from being a guarantee, in contrast to other top managers like Hiddink, Mourinho and the list can go on. The start of van Gaal`s career is what made him a star, but fact is his name seems to precede his performances in the last 15 years. This guy is NOT a football genius, as some make him out to be.

2. Tactical system
Louis van Gaal insists on playing in a 3-4-1-2 formation, which is obviously not suited for English football. No team ever had success in playing with 3 defenders in the Premier League and the Dutch manager seems reluctant to change the tactic, which could lead to his demise.

3. Defense
While United is stacked with quality all over, their defense is not up to standards and if you are playing with (only) Jones, Smalling and Rojo at the back, sides like Chelsea, Liverpool, City or Arsenal (even Tottenham) are set to have a field day against you. Defense wins you titles and the fact that van Gaal purposely refused to improve this area despite unlimited transfer funds is not honoring him at all.

4. Transfers
United spent a record £150m on transfers this summer, which is actually about £200m if they make the Falcao deal permanent (currently he`s on loan). While all these signings theoretically work in van Gaal’s favor, they could actually end up sacking him – there`s absolutely no way that Manchester United will have too much patience with the Dutchman after this balance-crippling transfer window. The fact that Van Gaal is known as a slow starter, his lack of Premier League experience and the lack of investments in the defensive area could speed up the process and clearly the manager is under huge pressure to deliver soon.

5. Manchester United board
This is in tight relation with the last point, but there`s more. The fact that the Manchester United Board only gave Van Gaal a 3 year contract (Moyes got 6) is a sign that they might not see him as the next Sir Alex Ferguson. The ownership also proved they WILL sack managers due to lack of results, so these two factors coupled with the summer investments suggest that Van Gaal won’t stay at United if results do not come soon.

6. Competition / Competitions
The Premier League has never been stronger and United already lost a couple of big points in the start of the season. Even if they magically start playing great football, it will be very hard to dethrone the likes of Chelsea and Manchester City, even Liverpool or Arsenal. Combine this with the fact that United is not playing European football and is out from the League Cup and you might start to wonder what they can do this season. Even if they start playing well (which is a big IF), their only real chance for a trophy looks to be the FA Cup, which is very far from a guarantee. Will a 4th place finish and an FA Cup final be enough for the board? I doubt it, and this looks close to the best possible scenario for van Gaal right now.

If you think that United are doomed for mediocrity this season you obviously have a lot of options to bet against the Red Devils or on the Dutch manager to get sacked. Disagree with us or have more arguments for Louis Van Gaal`s ‘destiny’ to fail? Comments are always open.

7. Bonus reason: David Moyes is unemployed

Free betting tips websites like Betdistrict are popular among punters who are looking for previews or predictions to help them make their betting choices on a daily basis. However, and I`m speaking from experience now, few bettors really know how to use and take advantage of the advice provided by these websites. Some people are reluctant to follow any advice, thinking they are better than everyone else or simply believing tipping websites are some sort of scam. Other tend to follow the picks blindly, lashing out at the tipsters if things don`t go their way. The best approach is somewhere in the middle, and I won’t deny that I am using it myself. So, how can you properly use a betting tips website in order to maximize your profits?

Let’s start with a simple insight on how betting tips portals work. Usually there is a tipster competition set up by the site administrators, where all kinds of punters (known as tipsters) compete for monthly prizes. They have to write a number of previews and if they are successful, they get a prize at the end of the month. Better tipping websites like Betdistrict also use editors. Editors post daily picks independent of the tipster competitions, aiming to provide the best previews. They are not necessarily better than the tipsters, actually there`s a big chance that a couple of tipsters are better than the editors – however, editors are committed to provide top class previews on a regular basis, with the best possible information on every pick they make. Of course the good tipping websites also provide a lot of guides and general betting information, but we`ll stick with the tips in this article.

The first thing you should do is, of course, take a good look at the matches of the day just to test the field and see what you like. A couple of games will jump to sight, you`re going to start analyzing the match, thinking … you know the drill. In the end you`ll be left with a couple of matches that you really like, maybe a couple that you like but not that much. At this point, accessing a tipping website will surely give you great help and added value. The best thing you can do is start looking at what other people (tipsters, editors) are saying about the matches you already analyzed. Me, this is what I`m looking for: tips on matches I already gave a proper analysis myself. Of course, your opinion should stand strong and you must not be moved simply because a tipster is going against your predicted outcome. However, if you find solid written previews they can reinforce your opinion or make you take another look at the game, lower the stakes or drop the bet all together. Additionally, there`s always the chance to find information you missed on, which is a huge factor. Of course, after this I always like to take a look at some other tips, maybe I can find a great betting opportunity that I previously missed. But if I do, I will not go on and bet without me taking a look at the match myself and making a proper analysis. At the end of this journey you should be left with the best betting choices, and betting tips websites would have helped you in that regard.

Tipping websites also provide you with other kind of useful information for your daily betting, such as odds and prices. For example, it`s important to know where are the best odds for your bet or for the sport you usually bet on. Getting the top price is always very important and I have always found this useful in tipping websites until I became a webmaster myself and started knowing the sports betting industry like the back of my hand. Of course, there are bookmaker reviews which are also helpful, but that`s another topic and I said I will stick strictly with the predictions part.

Other important suggestions:

• Quality of previews matter more than tipster record (except if the tipsters has winning or losing record of impressive proportions)
• Short time tipster profit / loss has virtually zero relevance
• Tipsters / editors are not necessarily better than you
• No matter what the overall record is, every tipping website will have losing tipsters and winning tipsters. In time, try to find the best tipsters on a website and put a little bit more trust in their previews

In the end, the first and foremost thing you should remember is that YOU have to make your decision in the end, it`s your money we are talking about here. Tipping websites can and should help, they will bring you information, show you opportunities, make you weight your choices more carefully, but in the end (and I don`t want this to sound as us trying to absolve ourselves from responsibility) the analysis and final decision should be yours. If you know how to use us, that should help create a win-win situation. This is what we strive to achieve here at Betdistrict, so what do you say we go on and do exactly that?

I wanted to write this prior to the World Cup, but as you may know, we had so many World Cup previews, that I just wasn’t able to bring it live before the start of the competition. I regret it just a bit, ’cause I was sure Spain will fail in Brazil (didn`t expect them to go out so early though) and I fancied Germany a lot, so some value is lost, but there is still money to be made on the outright market. And what better time to predict who will win the World Cup than hours away from the start of the knockout stage?

My prediction? Germany wins the World Cup, with Argentina as my second choice.

Germany (odds 5.00 @ Unibet) – listen, the Panzers are one of the most cohesive and well organized teams in the World Cup, they have stability on the bench and they boost individual quality as well. Group results don`t impact my choice too much, as for example the 4-0 against Portugal was exaggerated, but the 2-2 draw against Ghana saw great football from the Germans. The matches played so far only confirmed that Germany is in good shape – nothing less and nothing more than expected. We have question marks regarding all teams involved (form, quality, cohesiveness, etc.). I don`t have a particular one involving Germany.

Argentina (odds 5.75 @ Bwin) – two big reasons to go with Argentina as a ‘dark horse’ if they can be named that way, leaving aside their well-known quality, of course. Firstly, Messi has been unbelievable so far and you have to admit that he could be a deciding factor against anyone, at anytime. Secondly, Argentina is in the second half of the draw and apparently has an accessible road to the final, with Netherlands and Belgium as the only top class opponents along the way. Also, it`s nice to have an option on the other side of the draw if Germany fails.

Opposition

The opposition is a big reasons for which I`m going with Germany to win the World Cup, the challenging teams simply do not pose much of a threat in my opinion.

Brazil (4.00 @ Youwin) simply does not have the quality to be the top favorite in the outright market. I don`t trust them, Neymar has never performed on the big stage aside maybe the Confederations Cup. The offensive setup is just not good enough and it has never been tested against top class opposition. Also, Brazil has a nightmare draw and could realistically be out of the competition today, in the Round 16 match against Chile. If they wouldn’t have been hosts I would rule them out completely, because there are a handful of teams better than them in this World Cup.

Netherlands (9.00 @ Youwin) – No! The group results mean nothing, it is a current occurrence for Netherlands to play great football at the start of tournaments, score a lot of goals, and then fold when you least expect it. Their inexperienced defense will betray them somewhere along the way, it could even happen against Mexico.

France (9.00 @ Youwin) must be taken into account, they showed great football both in the group stages and prior to the World Cup. The team is very well balanced and Benzema seems able to carry the pressure of being the go-to man, also they should easily win their Round 16 match against Nigeria. But do they have the quality to take on Germany in the quarters? I doubt it. France still misses some pieces and they might just lack the luck of the draw and the star power needed to reach the semifinals.

Colombia (19.00), Belgium (23.00) and other dark horses – Listen, upsets can always happen and who knows if one of these teams can win the World Cup? But it would betray logic, and all we can do is play the probabilities. Colombia has played great football but they have tough matches ahead of them and I`ll just ride the lack of quality to make an argument against them. Belgium? No way, they are too young, they don`t have good chemistry and were very shaky in the group stages despite getting 3 wins. Chile (36.00) is a good side but did not impress me too much, they got some lucky breaks and the same can be said about Uruguay (34.00), which will also miss Suarez a lot and will probably get knocked out by Colombia today. The rest of the teams enter in the “miracle” category.

Taking a moment and looking at the possibilities, you might end up thinking “who can win this aside of Germany and Argentina?”. If you do not believe that Brazil can go all the way, the choices narrow down a lot, Netherlands and France don`t seem to have more than an outside shot, and it becomes pretty clear that Germany to win or Argentina to win are very solid bets. I`m sticking with my tip on Germany ahead of the South Americans though – they are the better TEAM, faster, more complete. The odds for the outright market are still very good as well, so it could well be worth a shot on one of these two teams (or both).

World Cup final
Germany – Argentina 2-1 (A.E.T)
Messi’s goal early in the second half brings Argentina inches closes to winning the World Cup trophy in Brazil, but Schweinsteiger equalizes with 10 minutes to go and Klose sends the German fans into raptures in overtime to book the first place for Germany. The Panzers will win it because of better cohesiveness, effectiveness and discipline.