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A famous quote, controversially attributed to Albert Einstein, defines insanity as “doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results”.

So why are we, yet again, so quick in dismissing Rafa’s chances for a 10th trophy at the French Open? Why is Djokovic the overwhelming favorite for bookies and punters – such a favorite that you get better odds and better value from handicapping a single match than from betting on Nole to win it all? Is it just because people tend to want the head of the Champion, or is it really that Djokovic can not be defeated at the current time?

As things stand, the draw has decided the pair will meet in a blockbuster quarterfinal if both are to win their matches in the first 4 rounds – which will most likely happen.

Rafa smiles as draw pairs him against Nole in QF's. #RG15. pic.twitter.com/WHL1Tmlx6s

— Betdistrict (@betdistrict) May 22, 2015

Rafa Nadal had a wretched year so far and his results on clay were the worst in the last decade. He won a single title, in South America. He played a single final in Europe, being blown out by Murray in Madrid. He lost to Fognini (twice), Wawrinka, Djokovic and of course Murray. But this is not new to him – this happened last year as well. Some may jump and point to the Madrid title he won in 2014, but fact is he would have lost that final if Nishikori did not get injured in the second set. And, after poor performances, he ruined the competition in Paris, including a relatively straightforward 4 set win over Djokovic in the final.

Rafa has trained all year with Roland Garros in mind and the stakes have never been higher for him – an incredible 10th title, the chance to prove he is still one of the best and probably the last chance to go after Federer’s record of 17 Slams. It will be a career defining moment for Rafa. Does anybody question his wild motivation coming into the French Open? Roland Garros is not Barcelona, Monte Carlo or Rome. The surface is different and the ‘3 out of 5 sets’ format gives Rafa an edge – as he lost only 1 time on clay in 3 out of 5.

Of course, Nadal is not the same ‘sure-bet’ as in the past. But to be able to back him at odds 5.00? A 9 time reigning champion in Paris? There`s value all over that. Federer stated that Nadal, as long as he`s competitive, will always be the favorite at Roland Garros. Can you argue with history? On the other hand, you can back Djokovic to win it all with odds as high as 1.83 on the outright market, but I must say “no, thanks” to that offer.

Novak Djokovic has never won Roland Garros. He fell to Nadal six times in Paris, often losing the mental battle. He seemed to get closer in the 2013 semifinal thriller, only to get farther in the 2014 final, when, just like today, he seemed like the man to beat. And he did seem the man to beat in 2011 as well, but Federer ended one of the most impressive winning streaks in tennis history – and this is where it gets tougher for Djokovic.

Unlike Nadal (who really expects Rafa to lose against Berdych for example), Djokovic can lose to a fair number of players in Paris. Murray is in top form and surely he stands a chance. Wawrinka can take on anybody on his day, while Nishikori always gave Nole serious problems. And Federer, on this fast clay, can and WILL beat him, but only if the Swiss finds his absolute top form, which of course is a huge “If”. Why not Berdych, who was so close to dethroning Novak in Monte Carlo.

Nadal’s possible road to the final: Halys (R1), Dolgopolov (R2), Mannarino (R3), Sock / Dimitrov (R4), Djokovic (QF), Murray (SF), Federer / Wawrinka (F)

Djokovic’s possible road to the final: Nieminen (R1), Muller (R2), Tomic (R3), Gasquet (R4), Nadal (QF), Murray (SF), Federer / Wawrinka (F)

The expectations and pressure might be too much for Djokovic to handle. Whith a bunch of dangerous opponents and with Nadal still in the hunt, 2015 will not be Nole’s year. My prediction is that Rafa will win their quarterfinal clash. He has an easy 1st round match to get warmed up, a tough 2nd round to get him in real shape and than a reasonable road to the QF’s. Nole will not be tested until the meeting against Rafa and that will be his Achilles heel.

I don`t expect too many surprises aside for Djokovic’s exit. Murray is in great form, Ferrer should grind out a realtively easy draw and meet him in the quarters. Nishikori and Berdych are in top form. Federer and Wawrinka are always prone to upsets but their draw is extremely accessible and it just doesn`t look likely they can lose until the quarters – Monfils, Simon, Thiem, Garcia Lopez or Cuevas being the only threats. Outright tips and prediction from the quarterfinals onwards, below. All in all, this should be a Roland Garros to remember. And we’ll remember the same thing, over and over again – Rafa Nadal lifting the French Open trophy.

QUARTERFINALS:
Djokovic – Nadal
Murray – Ferrer
Nishikori – Berdych
Wawrinka – Federer

SEMIFINALS:
Nadal – Murray
Berdych – Federer

FINAL: Nadal – Federer

7 for 7: Know your tipsters better is an article-series developed by Betdistrict, focusing on profiling the tipsters that bring you daily picks on our website. We have a small snippet, personal info and interviews containing 7 questions. The first ‘season’ of the series will see 7 of our tipsters interviewed. If you find the articles useful and enjoyable, the series will continue with a second season.

Currently (May 2015), Coldgold, an Arsenal fan, is the most successful tipster on Betdistrict – and his stats (over 300 units profit, 14% Yield) come from a relevant sample size of over 250 picks. A Bulgarian, Coldgold is betting almost exclusively on football, with a lot of lesser leagues in his portfolio. An early tip by Coldgold is almost guaranteed to see dropping odds in the next days and his proven record is impressive for a young tipster like himself. We`re eager to interview him and find out his inputs on the industry, betting, making money. Ladies and gents, Coldgold.

How did you become involved in sports betting and when did you start earning constantly?
Due to my background in chess and maths and my passion for soccer, I thought it would be a good idea to start investing in sports. Before I turned 18, I was just researching and looking on how would I pick up my strategy when I start betting. Most of my profit though, comes not from the bets I place myself – but rather from tipster competitions, strategic partnerships and work for investors. I had made profit in about 14/15 months since I started betting and publishing my betting analyses in different sites.

You are the best tipster on Betdistrict at the moment, with over 300 units of profit and ~ 14% Yield in over 250 picks. What`s your secret?
It`s hard to evaluate a tipster just by his stats. Some people would choose Ardeal, Kamlesh or Jompy over me. I personally think that Alcuni is the best tipster around with his great experience and Ligue 2 insights. Anyway, these results are achieved with a lot of research, good contacts, some stats and knowing where to find the info I need.

You are betting on many lesser known football leagues. Are you the type of punter that watches games, do you count on statistics, or do you make your bets looking at the odds movement?
It’s hard to beat the bookies in the top leagues. They know much more than the regular bettor there because there is huge demand for betting on these leagues. They also invest a lot in sponsorship and may manipulate the odds in the way they desire. On the other hand, in lesser known championships they use stats to make their odds which of course means they make a lot of mistakes with the opening odds because they may not always know that, for example, team A will play with 8 back choice players. Of course, that doesn’t mean that you can’t make profit from the biggest championships, it’s just a lot harder. I did a paper research for a conference investigating one of the biggest and one of the smallest championships which supports with exact figures my statements.

I only watch soccer for entertainment. You can find previews of the games and analysis of how they went, although of course watching the game for full 90 minutes will give you even bigger advantage over the bookies. I do count on statistics but you have to be very careful with it as there are other factors like weather, missing players, changes in club that should be considered as well. Sometimes stats can do more harm to the bettor than to help him. I do not care about odd movement (unless they are extreme, then most probably I will skip). If I spot value, I am on it. I am not afraid to bet against the market as well.

You are from Bulgaria and we, in Eastern European countries or equivalent, are starting to have hard times with bookmakers betting limits and legislation. Do you think people from such countries will have an increasingly hard time betting online in the near future?
A lot of Bulgarians have accounts with online bookies despite the absurd laws. I know from some contacts that in other Balkan countries the situation is better and they have lesser restrictions. Frankly, I think that the Balkan countries will not have any hard time with online betting. Actually, I believe that the situation will improve.

You are also writing for other tipping websites, but there are some portals with bigger prizes than us for which you are not posting. What motivates you to write ~ 20 tips / month on BD?
When I spot some good value and can support it with strong arguments, I just write my thoughts down (If I have the time of curse). I do not care a lot about how big the prizes are, I just feel my labor should be rewarded in one way or another (by gaining money or by acquiring new contacts). I do admit though, that if in the last day I could catch extra few hundred euros, I will do some unconventional moves to get my hands on them :). Some sites have rules which don’t suit me and I wouldn’t bother publishing for them at all. Another case is Bet****, who deleted my account without ever mentioning a reason why.

What`s your honest opinion about Betdistrict?
Generally I do like the site and also the administration has been correct ever since the site is on. I do think that there are some places for improvement, like adding more bookies which the competitors can choose from (and maybe remove some old ones), some better interface and advertisement. I am genuinely surprised, though that there is such a small amount of competitors here.

Thank you mate. A message for your followers and for Betdistrict’s readers?
All the best, I will work to write at the same level and continue to improve my record and I hope you will continue to follow me and the other tipsters on Betdistrict. Always make a proper analysis before betting.

Tipster personal info and gossip
Country: Bulgaria
Age: 19
Music genre: Hip Hop/RnB/House
Favorite movie(s): Inception, Interstellar, Fight Club, The Dark Knight, Prestige
Favorite person: A really tough question 🙂
Favorite team: Arsenal

Tipster profile page
Find Coldgold on twitter

“Never bet more than you can afford to lose” – Coldgold

7 for 7: Know your tipsters better is an article-series developed by Betdistrict, focusing on profiling the tipsters that bring you daily picks on our website. We have a small snippet, personal info and interviews containing 7 questions. The first ‘season’ of the series will see 7 of our tipsters interviewed. If you find the articles useful and enjoyable, the series will continue with a second season.

As things stand in May 2015, Ardeal is the second overall tipster on Betdistrict with a profit of about +232 units and an Yield of over 7% – both stats coming from a healthy sample of over 450 picks posted in 2 years. He’s also the longest serving tipster on Betdistrict and our partnership with him dates back to 2008, when we had good times hitting the bookies with our now extinct Romanian website betforcash. We at Betdistrict and me, Rostick, always rated Ardeal highly and had belief in his abilities. We’re happy to start this series profiling a guy that we like to call our friend and hearing what he has to say.

How did you become involved in sports betting, and when did you start earning constantly?
I’m passionate about this industry and I’m involved with gambling, cards and sports betting since forever. I started winning on a regular basis once I became more active in watching the matches and studying stats / different aspects of the game more carefully.

You are writing on Betdistrict since its birth in 2013, but you also wrote on our old Romanian website between 2008 and 2012 – being our oldest tipster and partner. Why?
I liked the idea behind the websites, initially Betforcash.ro and after that, Betdistrict. I believed in the project, I found quality and knowledge and I tried to give back the same things. Your Romanian website was the first one I wrote on and it helped me develop as a bettor, I learned things and tried to give back the same value and quality to the other readers.

Are you living trough betting, is it a secondary job or just a hobby?
I can say that betting is somewhere between a hobby and a secondary job for me. I’m writing picks and articles for the prizes and they help me analyze the match better myself.

Over 95% of your tips on Betdistrict are on tennis. It’s safe to say you are an expert, slowly making noise on twitter as well. What is your input on analyzing a tennis match?
I became a tennis specialist because I think it is the most beautiful sport at the moment. I started enhancing my knowledge trough reading every piece of information that came my way, from stats and picks to players’ particularities. My instinct and my vision are my best ‘weapons’ in betting a game and they come hand in hand with watching matches live – which is very important for me. Further facts include detailed player stats, form, mental aspect and pretty much everything else up to fans, venue, weather or match time. All factors are very important in my analysis, ones being more important than the others.

You came back from -200 units to +250 units on Betdistrict. A large part of your success was due to the “1st set tiebreak” bet. Why do you fancy this bet? Can it win long term?
I don’t think the “First set tiebreak” bet is the only reason for my progress from the “bottom of the pit”. I evolved as a punter and I just think I became better in looking for value, finding the value in the odds. I believe this is what long term success is all about.

I know you as a straight forward guy. What’s your opinion about Betdistrict?
I see it as my “home” website, I’m here since a very long time. I still have a very good opinion about Betdistrict, but I can say that it didn’t develop quite how I expected. I was thinking the website will develop more than it has and faster. I know it’s a lengthy process to create and popularize a good product, but I feel that some investments could bring it to the top. Still, overall I feel you are doing a great job and want to wish you success for the future.

Thank you mate. A message for your followers and for Betdistrict’s readers?
Watch, analyse, bet … never in a different order. Remember: The house doesn’t beat the player. It just gives him the opportunity to beat himself. And don’t forget, you can eat your betting money, but don’t bet your eating money!

Tipster personal info and gossip
Country: Romania
Favorite bookie: Pinnacle (odds) – Bwin (underdogs)
Music genre: Classic rock, Romanian folk music
Favorite movie: Two for the money, Mystic River, Good Will Hunting, Godfather
Favorite person: Avram Iancu, Del Piero
Favorite team: U Cluj, Juventus
Favorite players: Del Piero, Dolgopolov, Federer, Monfils, Karlovic

Tipster profile page
Find Ardeal on twitter (all about tennis, tennis insights)

“Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.”

“My advice to the unborn is, don’t be born with a gambling instinct unless you have a good sense of probabilities.”

It’s that time of year again, the Snooker World Championship is here and it should be a treat for fans and gamblers alike. First of all some general ideas. The snooker world championship has some distinct characteristics that make it different from all other snooker tournaments. The first thing is the format. If most tournaments are now looking for shorter formats like best of 7, that encourages risky play, the world championship sticks to its traditional format so we have:

– First round: best of 19 frames;
– Second round: best of 25 frames;
– Quarter finals: best of 25 frames;
– Semi-finals: best of 33 frames;
– Final: best of 35 frames.

This format impacts the game in a lot of ways, so much so that it needs to be analyzed differently that the other tournaments. First of all the play in the first round is in two sessions and not one, giving some time for a player that starts off badly to recover. If a player is in a bad day it does not necessarily need to be the end of the tournament. This leads to the idea that surprises are less likely to happen compared to short format games.

The second thing that sets the World Championship apart is its importance in the eyes of the players. That seems obvious but it needs to be said. For players like Ronnie O’Sullivan for example, or Mark Williams the world championship is THE tournament, the others are mostly to keep up the form. Top 16 players are very motivated in this competition, some to climb in the rankings, some to achieve a good result maybe for the first time, other to recapture lost glory, others to beat new records. The motivation is there, it is not a factor to even consider in yout betting analysis or tips. All players are focused, but who can best handle the pressure? Snooker is a game of precision but it is also a game where the psychological element is more important than in any other. Some players, like Mark Selby for one example, thrive under pressure, play their best game when up against the wall while others like, in the past, Ding Junhui or even Ronnie O’Sullian couldn`t handle it – losing the very advantage that natural talent gives them. Live betting can come in handy if you anticipate the impact of pressure.

Important in snooker betting is also the head to head. In most cases it will be balanced but look for the exceptions. Don’t just look at the matches, look at the total number of frames played and won between the two players, the percentage of frames won can give a nice idea of the dynamic between the two players. Like in tennis, the style of play is also very important in long snooker games. Fast players like O’Sullivan tend to be inconvenienced by slower players that take their time at the table like Mark Selby. Some players are aggressive, they risk long distance shots like Mark Williams, others wait for the opponent’s mistake.

And now to take a look at what is happening at this competition in 2015. As soon as the 2014 edition ended, the bookies placed odds on the next edition. Ronnie O’Sullivan is again seen as the big favorite with odds around 3.40 to 3.65. Before the draw was announced I thought these odds were simply bad, way too low, now they almost seem right. But let’s see the draw.

The first part of the draw has current reigning world champion Mark Selby with what I believe is one of the most unlucky draws ever. In the first round he takes on Kurt Maflin, a very talented player that never achieved his full potential. Maflin’s story is interesting in itself, but the thing to take into account is that he is a strong break builder with a decent safety game. He played Selby twice and actually won once in 2014 in the German Masters 5-3. This year he managed a semifinal in China Open after defeating Ali Carter, Mike Dunn, Robin Hull and Shaun Murphy, losing to Selby 6-3. In the qualifiers for the World Championship he defeated David Grace, snooker legend Steve Davis and Fergal O’Brien. All in all it should be an interesting match for Selby, the 1.14 odds not being justified. In fact any odds in this sport that is smaller than 1.30 (personally I believe 1.50) has little to no value. If Selby manages, as he should, to get past Maflin, he will play the winner between Stephen Maguire and Anthony Mcgill. Maguire is the favorite even if he tends to alternate between brilliant performances and incredibly poor matches, as he has done for most of the year. Mcgill is just not at Maguire’s level and a surprise is pretty unlikely.

The quarterfinal pairing for these two matches is an interesting one. In the third game of the draw veteran Joe Perry takes on the talented young Chinese player Zhang Anda. Perry always seems to find his form in the world championship and everyone who has seen his game against O’Sullivan last year can see what his potential is. But he is getting a little old and his consistency is not what it used to be, he showed some recovery in form towards the middle of the season but it is difficult to say whether it will be enough to see him through a couple of rounds. Zhang Anda is 23 years old and has yet to make a significant impact on the snooker community. The talent is there but he does not seem to have the composure needed to play at a high level. His most famous match is against all time great Stephen Hendry right at the Crucible where he lost dramatically in a decider 10-9. Perry should go through this match but as a betting tip avoid high stakes, look for handicaps.

The favorite to reach the quarterfinals is Shaun Murphy who was drawn against Robin Hull in the first round. Murphy has had a good season with solid gameplay and good results, victories over most top players and he comes to the Crucible with a decent chance. Robin Hull should not be a problem for the Brit, the difference in quality is high and a 3.5 handicap at 1.60 and above is worth considering. A game between Perry and Murphy in the second round would be very interesting with Murphy the favorite, but should be a close clash. The first quarter is shaping up to be a very close match between Mark Selby and Shaun Murphy.

Another one of the real contenders for this year’s title is Neil Robertson. He is a complete player, and in my opinion the one with the highest potential of all players on the tour today. He has a complicated draw. The first game is against Jamie Jones, a surprise from last year but not really a very solid player. The second round would be a meeting with the winner between Ali Carter and veteran Alan McManus with Carter the favorite. It will be interesting to see Ali Carter back at the Crucible after his health problems and I hope to see him at his best. In the quarters these players could meet Barry Hawkins (favorite against Matthew Selt, -1.5 handicap is interesting here) and Mark Allen or Ryan Day (probably the closest first round match two experienced players, Allen very aggressive, Day more tactical). Robertson looks good to win this quarter but he is going to have to work for it.

In the second part of the draw we have three players with real chances for the title. The favorite Ronnie O’Sullivan has by far the easiest draw out of all the main players. If he himself could have placed his name in the draw he would have chosen this spot. He plays first round against Craig Steadman, first time at the world championship, 32 years old. This should be a warm up match for O’Sullivan and no problem. The second round should see him face one of veterans Matthew Stephens or Mark Williams, both good players but with very bad records against O’Sullivan. The possible adversaries for the quarters are Ricky Walden, Graeme Dott (very interesting first round match the odds of 2.20 on Dott have interesting value) and Stuart Bingham and Robbie Williams. Bingham has been playing bad snooker lately so for me Dott is the favourite to face O’Sullivan in the quarters, but again, Ronnie is a clear favorite for the semifinals where the hard part should begin. (I should mention that I can’t stand Ronnie O’Sullivan and I tried to be objective here as much as I could but take it with a grain of salt).

The other quarter from the second part of the draw is much more interesting with names like Ding Junhui, Judd Trump, John Higgins. Ding plays Mark Davis in a very interesting first round match and a surprise here is possible as Davis is capable of some amazing snooker especially is his long distance pot is working. Ding is not at his best form, even after a pretty good tournament in China, he really needs to up his game for this. The winner of this match will play the winner of the duel between John Higgins and Robert Milkins. Higgins is not at a very high level right now ever if he has had a couple of good results this year his game just does not have the same consistency as five years ago. He should beat Milkins, another veteran on the tour, but he will have problems advancing very far in the tournament if his game does not improve in a major way.

Another player with what seems like an easy draw until the quarters is Judd Trump. With an amazing form prior to this competition, a lot of people see Trump as the man to beat in the Crucible this year. With amazing wins over O’Sullivan, Murphy, Maguire this year, Trump’s confidence should be high. A first round match against Stuart Carringtonn should not be a problem to set up a meeting with either Marco Fu or Jimmy Robertson (with Fu the favorite). This should not be a problem either for Trump in his way to the quarters. We should see a quarter final game between Trump and Ding if no surprises occur.

In order to finish up this preview & analysis, some conclusions are in order. Due to his undeniable talent and relatively easy draw in the first rounds O’Sullivan is the favorite to take this title home and I see him playing a very tight game against Trump in the semis. On the other side of the draw, Neil Robertson should come up on top, even in a remake of the semifinal from last year against Selby. Don’t forget that live betting in snooker almost always brings more value that pre-game odds and you should exploit this. Lastly, let’s hope for a good tournament. As a fan, I can’t wait for it to start!

Semifinals prediction:
Selby – Robertson
Trump – O’Sullivan

Final prediction:
Robertson – O’Sullivan

Winner: Ronnie O`Sullivan.

Betting wise, he had odds 50.00. He started from the 8th place on the grid, and he was never expected to break the Top 3. But odds never tell the whole story – he was number #46! Last year he showed he can still compete at the highest level, but to win in this situation? Insane.

Valentino Rossi took a breathtaking win in the Qatar 2015 opening Moto GP round at Losail, downing rivals Marquez, Lorenzo and Pedrosa for his 83th premmier class win – and a chance for a 10th Championship title, 8th in the premier class. He won it in vintage fashion, breaking down every expert analysis, talks of retirement and all expectations.

And he won it in style. The same style that made him the most popular rider in Moto GP history. Taking off from 8th on the grid, he dropped to 10th, but consistently made his way up the grid over Honda and Yamaha rivals, only to battle it out with the new and strong force of Ducati – a battle which he won, courtesy of some brilliant racing to fend off the speed of the Italian manufacturer. He leads the line right now, he is first in the standings. What`s to come?

You talk Giacomo Agostini, you talk Mick Doohan, you talk Valentino Rossi when you talk about the GOAT. You talk guys like John Surtees, Mike Hailwood, Eddie Lawson or Casey Stoner. These guys are established as absolute Top 10 riders in racing history. Still, there is not one person who can say one is better than the other. Oh, the spectacular racing style of Rossi must make him the best ever, the GOAT, but that is only from a fans’ perspective. Or is it? How about reality? How about the true facts that makes one better than the other?

Similar to tennis, formula 1 or even football, the gap between generations and, in this case, racing rules, will always generate a reason fore debate. However, if Valentino Rossi wins his 10th overall championship and his 8th Moto GP crown, he should be regarded as the best rider to ever take the circuit. Why?

Because winning over different generations is a difference maker !

Giacomo Agostini dominated with unprecedented authority in 1968-1975, Mick Doohan was untouchable in his glory years and Casey Stoners’s skill proved you can win with an inferior bike if you are one of the best ever. But Rossi is competing since 2000 at the top class and killed himself in the glory years by taking on the Ducati dream, which proved to be just that – a dream, with the Italian manufacturer unable to provide a competitive bike.

Moto GP Class number of championships (as of March 2015):

Giacomo Agostini: 8
Valentino Rossi: 7
Michael Doohan: 5

Rossi utterly dominated his early years on his Honda against the likes of Max Biaggi and Loris Capirossi and defeated Jorge Lorenzo on a Yamaha. Should he rise (at 36 years old) above top form riders like Lorenzo or Pedrosa, should he rise over an emerging open class Ducati and a young Marc Marquez, that will be an unprecented feat. To defeat an established and hungry Marc Marquez, a rider that has a perfect bike and will end up being in the ‘best ever conversation’, would be Valentino Rossi’s final statement.

A statement that could not be contested. Ever.