Why the under has more betting value than the over

The under/over market is one of the most popular in betting, especially in football. Punters all over the world are looking at that 2,5 goal line as soon as they have their eyes on one game and, aside for the 1×2 moneyline, the under / over is the market which sees the highest betting volume both in numbers and in amounts. While every game has it’s own particularities and factors to take into account, one will generally find the best betting value on the “Under” line. So, why is that?

There are a couple of simple explanations for this fact. Firstly, it`s the human nature and the punters’ mentality. Pretty much every bettor out there, me included, would prefer to bet on the over, watch the game, and hope for goals. I literally know people who have never bet the under line, stating that they can`t watch a game hoping no goals will be scored. We need that excitement to cheer for teams to score whether we admit it or not, we can only supress that urge and be disciplined in our choices. Bottom line is, the vast majority of punters is betting on the over – and this, of course, creates value on the under.

The bookies are aware of this way of thinking all too well and most sportsbooks will artificially launch higher odds for the under and lower for the over when the prices hit the market, in order to avoid large payouts on the over line. In my former experience as a bookie I have experienced this approach first hand. In my first days at work, I couldn`t understand why the bookmaker was giving such low odds for the over. Much lower than they should have been, even lower than the competition. It was the first time I learned that punters will jump on the over like sharks on fish. Also, if you know you have a bigger than average number of casual punters, you have to go with the odds lower than the competition, because casual punters are the most attracted to a high number of goals.

Take a look at the image posted here. The amounts of money are very small so far for this game, but it`s still a good example. If you`re not familiar with Betfair I will explain it very simple below the image.

• In the green boxes, below the odds, are the amounts available to bet on the under.
• In the red boxes, below the odds, are the amounts available to bet on the over.
• Clearly there is much more available to bet on the under, which means that more money have been matched (bet) on the over and much faster

Another factor of interest here concerns statistics. Of course, stats are not the only factor taken into account when compiling odds, but they matter – and on the under/over line, stats are always misleading – for the punters firstly, then for the bookies (who must take the bettors opinion into account). Let`s take a very simple example:

In the 2013-2014 Premier League season there was an average of 2.77 goals scored per game (via Sky Sports). That`s reasonably high, right? More than the standard 2,5 line anyway. The lowest score which can drag the average down is 0-0, which means 2,5 goals under the line. Simetrically, the highest score which can drag the average up should be 5-0, 4-1 or 3-2 (5 goals scored) – but it`s not. Fluke scorelines like 6-4, 4-4 or 7-0 artificially increase the goal statistics. For example, if you have 4 games finishing 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 and 7-0, the average / match is 2,5 goals, but you have 3 unders and 1 over. Take all Premier League games with 6 or more goals scored in the 2013-2014 season and you will find that the 2.77 goal/game average suddenly transforms into about 2,5. While this is a general example, think of the implications it has when we are talking about specific teams or home/away goal scoring records – it becomes an important part of odds compiling, thus artificially increasing the odds on the under market and creating value.

While I do understand it, I hate the kind of thinking that makes you bet on a particular outcome just to get a thrill out of the game. The opportunity to have access to stats, match-ups, value and so on is unique to betting, and a punter should take advantage. When you`re betting just to have the thrill of expecting for goals, you often lose the value and obviously your chances to win become slimmer in the long run.

As previously stated in this article, every match has its own story, its own factors and circumstances and of course betting blindly on the under is by no means a betting system or a guarantee for success. Bottom line though, the Under usually has more value and you should not avoid betting on it just because you can’t get the same rush when watching the game. Me, I`m a fan of the Under since a long time after weighting the pros and cons.