Wimbledon second week preview

It`s been a crazy first week at Wimbledon, that`s for sure. Thanks mainly to the “Wednesday carnage”, we were left without some of the biggest names in both the men`s and the women`s draw at a very early stage. Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Jo Wilfried Tsonga, Maria Sharapova or Viktoria Azarenka were sent home by way lesser opposition.

Nadal, with his bad knees, lost in the first round to Steve Darcis in three sets. It was his first ever Grand Slam first-round exit. Roger Federer had an unbelievable series of 36 consecutive grand-slam quarterfinals, and to be sent home in the second round on his “home turf”, at Wimbledon, was a huge shock. Given the fact that his executioner was ukrainean journeyman Sergyi Stakhovsky, ranked 116 in the world, made this one of the biggest surprises in tennis history. Sampras suffered something similar in 2002, losing to then no. 145 swiss George Bastl before retiring three months later after winning the US Open title. Could it be history repeating itself?

Still, the fact that all this surprise winners, and others like Dustin Brown (who beat Hewitt with an amazing serve&volley display), lost big in the next round speaks volume about the consistency of the mentioned champions. Nadal and Federer should return again next year as favorites here.

We also saw a huge number of retirement and walkovers, and if the trend continues, Wimbledon 2013 will break a record in this department. The surface has been modified a little this year, being faster than usual. A very interesting fact is that a number of players (like Benoit Paire) openly criticized the condition of the courts. Others (like Tsonga) blamed the humidity for this wave of retirements. This is something to keep in mind when betting in the second week.

So what can we expect from now on? I won`t dwell much on the women`s draw, as Serena Williams is a huge favourite to lift this trophy for a seventh time, and she should do it without any problems as the competition is just too weak. Also, her power-game suits the grass perfectly. Look for Bartoli to make some noise here, as she loves these courts at Wimbledon and has an accessible draw, with only Kvitova and Stephens as worthy opponents (on paper).

The men`s tournament has an obvious potential final, and that is Djokovic – Murray. It could happen, though I`m not so sure. Nole is not a lover of grass, and he has a tough side of the draw, with Haas in the R16 (what bad luck for Haas), probably Berdych in the quarters. We won`t go as far as semis, as surprises could happen, but Ferrer (plays Dodig in R16) or Del Potro (plays Seppi in R16) could wait him there, though none of them really likes grass.

The lower half of the draw looks more like an ATP 250 tournament after all the retirements and surprises we have seen in the first week. One of these players will reach the semifinal: Kubot, Mannarino, Janowicz, Melzer. The pole, Janowicz, did not lose a set so far and he looks a good pick to break in the last 4, but Melzer is a player with Grand Slam experience and on his day he could beat any of the three players in his quarter. One of these two should reach the semis, as Kubot and Mannarino mainly benefited from circumstances and the poor draw. This is ironic, because this quarter of the draw was considered the toughest in Grand Slam history, with Federer and Nadal. Andy Murray is playing some great tennis at this year`s Wimbledon and should hold his own against opponents like Youzhny and Verdasco (both dangerous) and reach the semis. Melzer or Janowicz could challenge him there, but Andy should reach the final, where he will have the first chance against any opponent.

My picks would be a Serena Williams – Marion Bartoli women`s final, with Serena winning easily. In the men`s tournament I`m looking for a Djokovic – Murray final, with Andy winning in 4 sets and becoming the first brit to triumph here after 77 years. He beat Nole at US Open, he challenged him on his favorite court, at Australian Open. At Wimbledon, with this kind of form, Murray can`t be an outsider against a Djokovic that never liked grass, did not look to impressive so far and will struggle to reach the final.

For a profitable Wimbledon second week, let`s see a few tips and suggestions for punters to look for.

Betting tips for Wimbledon second week

• Keep your stakes low if you had an unsuccessful first week, and look to build patiently, going with high stakes on the semifinals and finals after thorough analysis.

• Look for fast players, hard hitters and serve&volleyers to continue their success on this fast grass.

• With more matches played on centre court, beware that the roof slows balls down.

• Do serious research about the fitness of the players before betting. Retirements, or worse, injuries carried until the end of a match, could still happen in the current conditions.

• Expect the tournament to go into an overall state of normality in these final rounds, without too many upsets.

• There has been an unexpected amount of three setters in the men`s tournament. Expect more tight matches, everyone who got to the second week is playing well. 48% of matches went beyond three sets in Wimbledon history.

• Haas will challenge Djokovic on these fast courts, and if the serb beats him, so will Berdych. A surprise from this two matches is not out of question.

• Don`t bet on Serena to win the tournament at 1.25. She could injure herself, or (less probable) a huge surprise could happen. It`s not worth it. Instead, look for her to cover the spread against players with no shot-power.

• Marion Bartoli to reach the final could be a value bet. She did it before. You can get odds around 10 for this bet.

• Murray to win the tournament – 2.50 @ Unibet.