Blog

After previously analyzing Group A of the World Cup, we go on and take a look at the competitive Group B, which will see Spain, Netherlands, Chile and Australia fight for a place in the knockout round.

As the title holders and winners of the last 3 major football competitions, Spain can hardly be considered anything else than one of the strong favorites in Brazil. However, Spain seems to have lost some of that brilliance that brought them so much success over the last six years. The aging ex-Barcelona nucleus is steadily falling apart with Puyol retired, Xavi and David Villa past their best, and Fabregas and Iniesta out of form. While still filled with quality, Spain is in somewhat of a rebuilding period and here is where Vicente Del Bosque’s experience might come in handy. Results in the last 2 years have still been good, but a 0-3 defeat to Brazil in the Confederations Cup final is still haunting the Spaniards. With so much competition in this group, Spain will have to be at their best right from the start if they are to finish first. They will need a solid gameplan from Del Bosque, a vintage Casillas and a healthy Diego Costa would also be an important asset.

• Key players: Sergio Ramos, Sergio Busquets
• Strong spots: Overall quality, Passing game, Keeper position, Defense, Midfield, Manager
• Weak spots: Aging key players, Performance exhaustion
• Odds to qualify: 1.17 @ Bet365

 
Netherlands cruised trough the qualifiers in typical fashion, but they will need to keep that level up on the big stage, something they are rarely able to do. One time they did it though was in the last World Cup, when they lost the final in extra time against their Group colleagues Spain. Revenge will be on the cards for Netherlands in the high profile group opener, which could well end up deciding the first place. Van Gaal’s side has a somewhat similar problem to Spain, as their key midfielders and strikers are aging, but they should be ready for one last push. Holland will fight neck and neck with Spain for the first place and their form over the last 2 years will give them confidence they can top Group B.

• Key players: Robin van Persie, Arjen Robben
• Strong spots: Overall quality, Midfield, Offense, Counterattacks, Manager
• Weak spots: Aging key players, Defense
• Odds to qualify: 1.72 @ Betfair Sportsbook

 
Chile has such a marvelous generation of players, but the South American nation can’t catch a break and is always forced to play in the toughest groups. Chile finished on the 3rd place in the World Cup qualifying tournament and has only lost to Brazil and Germany in the last 13 outings. The bookies are giving Chile some attention here as they have odds to qualify just a bit higher than Holland. Despite this, there`s only 2 ways that Chile will challenge for a top 2 spot – either Arturo Vidal and Alexis Sanchez to be at their absolute best, or Netherlands to have one of their traditional breakdowns at big tournaments (unlikely with Louis van Gaal as manager).

• Key players: Arturo Vidal, Alexis Sanchez
• Strong spots: Offense, Individual quality, Counterattacks
• Weak spots: Defense, Chemistry
• Odds to qualify: 1.95 @ Bwin

 
Australia has the worst team in recent years and the Kangaroos needed a late effort to overtake Jordan and finish second in the Asian qualifying group. The pre-World Cup friendlies were mostly awful as of May 31st, including two 6-0 drubbings at the hands of Brazil and France. With zero star power and with some horrible results over the last 2 years, it would take a miracle for Australia not only to avoid the last place, but win more than a point in this group. I`d tip them to finish with zero points, but unfortunately there`s no such betting option available at the moment. Look for Australia to be one of the worst teams in this World Cup.

• Key players: Tim Cahill, Mile Jedinak
• Strong spots: Offense
• Weak spots: Individual quality, Defense, Form, Chemistry
• Odds to qualify: 15.00 @ Unibet

Stay tuned on Betdistrict for complete group stage analysis and extensive World Cup insight. Follow our facebook page and our Brazil 2014 blog for complete World Cup coverage.

Our Brazil World Cup group stage preview series kicks of with the analysis and predictions for Group A, which will see hosts Brazil take on Croatia, Mexico and Cameroon.

Brazil might lack a bit of the all star talent they previously had, especially on the offensive end, but make no mistake – this team can go all the way. Scolari has made the best out of this squad and Brazil still has a number of world class caliber players who can single handedly decide a game. Brazil played some great football in preparation for the World Cup, including a 3-0 win over Spain in the Confederations Cup final and 13 wins in the last 14 games (11 of which came by at least two goals). The Selecao should be able to cruise trough this group but they will need Neymar to be at his best if they are to challenge for the World Cup, as they lack attacking depth, both in midfield but especially in the striker position. On a sidenote, this might be the first time in history when Brazil’s defensive players are the stars of the team.

• Key players: Neymar, Thiago Silva
• Strong spots: Overall quality, Defense, Midfield, Attacking speed, Home court advantage, Manager
• Weak spots: Keeper position, attacking depth
• Odds to qualify: 1.06 @ Betfair

 
Croatia did not have the easiest time qualifying for the World Cup, finishing 2nd behind Belgium, but eventually they took care of business in the playoffs against the surprise package of Iceland. The Croatians seem to be in a bit of a decline compared to recent years but they still have a quality squad and a lot of experience at this level. Their form as of 27th May is not the best with just 1 win in 5 games and Croatia will have to improve if they are to qualify for the second round. But, all in all, Croatia does seem the most solid and experienced team behind Brazil in this group A.

• Key players: Luka Modric, Mario Mandzukic
• Strong spots: Defense, Tactical discipline, Experience
• Weak spots: Keeper position, Defensive depth, Keeping possession
• Odds to qualify: 2.22 @ Betfair

 
Similar to Croatia, Mexico seems to have lost some power in the last few years and had a disappointing qualifying campaign, finishing 4th behind USA, Costa Rica and Honduras in Central America. The New Zealand playoff tie was of course an easy task for Mexico, but questions arise whether they can still mix it up with the best in the World. Mexico has a squad composed mostly of domestic based players and will need their few stars to step up and score some goals in this Group – because defensively and in the midfield area they are not at the same level as Croatia, nevermind Brazil. The bookies are rating Mexico with similar chances to advance as Croatia, but that might not be the case.

• Key players: Javier Hernandez, Giovanni Dos Santos
• Strong spots: Offense, Counterattacks
• Weak spots: Midfield, Defensive discipline, Poor form
• Odds to qualify: 2.20 @ Ladbrokes

 
Cameroon will come to Brazil with a star filled roster of european-based players and it’s no wonder they qualified for the World Cup for the second consecutive time. Nevertheless, Cameroon will need to prove they can play as a team if they are to have any hope of going through and, like all African teams, will have to cope with meeting opponents of a superior level compared to the ones on their continent. All in all, Cameroon’s quality squad might make betting on them to do some damage in Group A a profitable investment.

• Key players: Samuel Eto’o, Alexandre Song
• Strong spots: Midfield, Quality individual players
• Weak spots: Keeper position, Team chemistry, Inconsistency
• Odds to qualify: 6.00 @ Winner

Stay tuned on Betdistrict for complete group stage analysis and extensive World Cup insight. Follow our facebook page and our Brazil 2014 blog for complete World Cup coverage.

The under/over market is one of the most popular in betting, especially in football. Punters all over the world are looking at that 2,5 goal line as soon as they have their eyes on one game and, aside for the 1×2 moneyline, the under / over is the market which sees the highest betting volume both in numbers and in amounts. While every game has it’s own particularities and factors to take into account, one will generally find the best betting value on the “Under” line. So, why is that?

There are a couple of simple explanations for this fact. Firstly, it`s the human nature and the punters’ mentality. Pretty much every bettor out there, me included, would prefer to bet on the over, watch the game, and hope for goals. I literally know people who have never bet the under line, stating that they can`t watch a game hoping no goals will be scored. We need that excitement to cheer for teams to score whether we admit it or not, we can only supress that urge and be disciplined in our choices. Bottom line is, the vast majority of punters is betting on the over – and this, of course, creates value on the under.

The bookies are aware of this way of thinking all too well and most sportsbooks will artificially launch higher odds for the under and lower for the over when the prices hit the market, in order to avoid large payouts on the over line. In my former experience as a bookie I have experienced this approach first hand. In my first days at work, I couldn`t understand why the bookmaker was giving such low odds for the over. Much lower than they should have been, even lower than the competition. It was the first time I learned that punters will jump on the over like sharks on fish. Also, if you know you have a bigger than average number of casual punters, you have to go with the odds lower than the competition, because casual punters are the most attracted to a high number of goals.

Take a look at the image posted here. The amounts of money are very small so far for this game, but it`s still a good example. If you`re not familiar with Betfair I will explain it very simple below the image.

• In the green boxes, below the odds, are the amounts available to bet on the under.
• In the red boxes, below the odds, are the amounts available to bet on the over.
• Clearly there is much more available to bet on the under, which means that more money have been matched (bet) on the over and much faster

Another factor of interest here concerns statistics. Of course, stats are not the only factor taken into account when compiling odds, but they matter – and on the under/over line, stats are always misleading – for the punters firstly, then for the bookies (who must take the bettors opinion into account). Let`s take a very simple example:

In the 2013-2014 Premier League season there was an average of 2.77 goals scored per game (via Sky Sports). That`s reasonably high, right? More than the standard 2,5 line anyway. The lowest score which can drag the average down is 0-0, which means 2,5 goals under the line. Simetrically, the highest score which can drag the average up should be 5-0, 4-1 or 3-2 (5 goals scored) – but it`s not. Fluke scorelines like 6-4, 4-4 or 7-0 artificially increase the goal statistics. For example, if you have 4 games finishing 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 and 7-0, the average / match is 2,5 goals, but you have 3 unders and 1 over. Take all Premier League games with 6 or more goals scored in the 2013-2014 season and you will find that the 2.77 goal/game average suddenly transforms into about 2,5. While this is a general example, think of the implications it has when we are talking about specific teams or home/away goal scoring records – it becomes an important part of odds compiling, thus artificially increasing the odds on the under market and creating value.

While I do understand it, I hate the kind of thinking that makes you bet on a particular outcome just to get a thrill out of the game. The opportunity to have access to stats, match-ups, value and so on is unique to betting, and a punter should take advantage. When you`re betting just to have the thrill of expecting for goals, you often lose the value and obviously your chances to win become slimmer in the long run.

As previously stated in this article, every match has its own story, its own factors and circumstances and of course betting blindly on the under is by no means a betting system or a guarantee for success. Bottom line though, the Under usually has more value and you should not avoid betting on it just because you can’t get the same rush when watching the game. Me, I`m a fan of the Under since a long time after weighting the pros and cons.

With the 2014 Brazil World Cup set to start on Thursday June 12th, thus closing in on us fast, punters need to begin getting ready for the football and sporting event of the year. The World Cup always produces passion and excitement among football fans, TV audiences are going trough the roof and the bookmakers’ betting volume is the highest you will ever see as well. However, one needs to be prepared if he/she plans to cash in on the competition.

The first thing you need to know as a bettor is how will you approach the World Cup? Do you want to stake high and make money? Do you want to play just for fun? Or do you want to combine both strategies, looking for the best value but also betting on other matches to raise the excitement? You`ll want to decide before the tournament starts in order to avoid being unprepared and placing chaotic bets with no strategy. After all, knowing what you want is the first step to success not only in betting, but in most jobs, projects or investments and even in life in general.

The second step, of course, is to stay informed, and the sooner you start acquiring information the better. You don`t want it too soon either, as things can change, but getting informed a couple of weeks before the tournament will give you an edge over the other punters and the bookmakers. You`ll know what other don`t when they don`t, you can find value in group games even before the competition kicks off and any other info you find during the tournament will come as a building block over the foundation you already raised. There`s a lot of time for that research as well, as big football leagues are set to finish weeks before the World Cup.

We at Betdistrict, editors and tipsters combined, will aim to provide you with the most comprehensive World Cup betting coverage and guides, the best tips and previews and you can count on us to be your World Cup resource for betting. Our goal is for you to find everything you need here, so you know where to look for. Below is part of what we will bring to the table during the competition.

Previews for every World Cup Group prior to the start of the tournament

– Similar to what we did on the Champions League this season, but more comprehensive. We will cover every group in 8 blog articles / guides before the World Cup kicks off.

Tournament analysis and outright betting preview

– Who are the favorites, who will go far in the World Cup and who you should back to win outright

Where to bet on the World Cup

– The best bookmaker offers, promotions, and where to bet with the highest odds

Betting previews for all World Cup matches

– During the competition we will cover every World Cup game in our editor and tipster picks

Social media coverage

– Social media coverage on our Facebook, Twitter and Google+ accounts.

All blog articles will be grouped on our Brazil World Cup 2014 blog.

The reverse leg of the 2014 Romanian Cup semifinal between Dinamo Bucharest and Steaua Bucharest might have lacked drama on the pitch, with the hosts only managing a 1-1 draw after a horrible 2-5 loss in the first leg, but 40.000 something supporters put on a Tifo show to be remembered, one of the better scenographies seen in European Football.

The Dinamo Bucharest ‘Red Dogs’ where by far the winners in the stands, the “Peluza Catalin Hildan” Ultras masterminding a fabulous 3d choreography, with 2 Red Dogs (acting as orchestra members – one with a puppy, symbolizing the next generation) rising from a background of white and red placards which dynamically changed from “PCH” to “FCD” – the Tifo being displayed on Ravel’s Bolero symphony, interpreted by an orchestra in front of the goal. Part of the 3D Tifo was also a large music note banner, which represented the musical notes of one of the fans favorite chants. Apparently even this was not enough for Dinamo’s fans, as they also uncovered a second choreography after the break, illustrating the famous Muttley Dog dynamiting Steaua’s supporters.

Dinamo’s PCH also displayed a commemorative message for the victims of Hillsborough.

Full choreography (the spectacular placard message change starts at 4:00):

Live TV Coverage of the Tifo (Pro TV):