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Kobe Bryant, currently recovering from an Achilles injury, just signed a 2 year contract extension with the Lakers, reportedly worth around 48.5 million $. The Black Mamba will make 23.5 million in the first contract year and 25 million in the second, thus remaining the best paid player in the league. The contract extension was and is widely discussed in the media and in the basketball world in general, with the slight majority considering that Kobe should have taken less money in order to allow the franchise to have more cap space so they can attract high caliber free agents in the next two years – with the likes of Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony (2014) or Kevin Love (2015) on the verge of ending their contracts.

The numbers

Kobe`s deal at the moment is making for about 36% of the total cap space the Lakers will have next season. In the summer, Lakers would only have about 23 million available in cap space – and that would presume they do not re-sign Pau Gasol, Jordan Hill or any other players with expiring contracts. The illustration below better shows which are the players that the Lakers have under contract for the 2014-2015 season and the salary cap below:

Basically, the Lakers will be left with Kobe, a broken-down Nash, a couple of role players and about 23 million to build the squad (with about 1 million going to a draft pick, so more like 22 million). Gasol and Hill will probably demand this money by themselves if the Lakers wants to keep them. There are a few tweaks and tricks which could be done here and there to expand the cap space (like using a stretch provision on Nash – which would keep him a Laker and take about 5 million off the books this year), but the Lakers basically have two options:

1. Keeping (pretty-much) the same roster as this year with 1-2 quality role players added (but even that would imply Gasol taking a bit of a paycut).

2. Waiving Nash, hoping Gasol takes a big paycut, hoping Hill would accept a lower deal than he deserves and then going for a max. free agent like Carmelo or 1-2 solid guys like Monroe, Bledsoe or Hayward.

Kobe

The answer to the punctual question in the title is “NO!”. Kobe clearly stated that he accepted the first offer the Lakers presented him. So what is he going to do, say “no, this doesn`t work, give me less money please”? And people are fast to disregard the fact that Kobe DID take something close to a 7 million per year paycut. Very importantly, I can sense a tendency of clearly underestimating The Black Mamba lately. Last year he had better stats than the much hyped James Harden in almost every category. He deserves the money. Bryant aggressively defended the deal in the media and on his twitter account.

Lakers frontoffice

The money Kobe is getting is justified from a financial standpoint – even if he`s not the best player in the league anymore, he`s still the most marketed, draws the biggest crowds, and he was balling at the highest level prior to his injury. He`ll be making the Lakers much more money than they are paying him, and he did it for 17 years, despite the huge contract he was getting. In the end it`s all about money, and the Lakers booked a nice profit over Kobe for the next two years, while also scoring points with the LA fanbase, establishing Kobe`s legacy and their own.

On the other hand, taking all factors into account, the deal is bad. No doubt about that. With Kobe presenting little interest to other teams in the summer at this kind of price, and with him obviously wanting to retire a Laker, it`s mindblowing how the Lakers frontoffice decides to come up with this massive offer.  Should they have offered Kobe something in the 20 million region, I am pretty sure he would have said “Yes” without too much thought. Note that we`re talking about a 35 year old player coming back from one of the worst injuries in sports.

Bryant is a winner and he proved he is as tough as he gets, so he could well overcome this achilles injury even at his age. He`s still a top 10 player in the league, despite ESPN laughably ranking him 25 this year. Keeping Kobe was a must for the Lakers, and it would have been the smart move even at this 48.5 million contract, but ONLY IF he had similar offers on the table and LA risked losing him via free agency. But that was not going to happen, as even between the few teams able to offer him a salary like this, there was none which would have given him this kind of money.

• Skip Bayless, ESPN: “Was Jimm Buss negotiating against himself?”

The Lakers should have made a lower offer, in the 15-20 million range, which Bryant would have likely accepted. That was if the whole organization was keen on winning a title in the next 2 years. All in all, except for some vintage Lakers “off-season magic”, LA seems to have forfeited their chances for another championship anytime soon. And with Jimm Buss running the show now, that kind of magic is unlikely to happen again – despite Mitch Kupchak being a top class GM. Likely scenario? The Lakers keep the loyal Gasol (who takes a big paycut), Nash (stretch provision), Hill (maybe, maybe not) and get a mid-level guy like Greg Monroe or Brendan Hayward, along with re-signing or acquiring a couple of role players with minimum salaries. That would make for a good team, but not really championship – caliber. They could also maybe try and go for Kevin Love in the 2015 free agency. And who knows, maybe Kobe will show us one last drop of greatness to lead this team to the Finals. I`m a Lakers and Kobe fan, but taking everything into account, this contract does not make much sense, and the Lakers frontoffice is the only one to blame.

Betdistrict verdict: Bad Deal.

Tipsters’ input: what do our NBA tipsters think?

QUIDPROQUO (Serbia): Possibly one of the worst contract decisions in NBA history. I honestly can’t believe what Jim Buss did here. You give up 40% of your salary cap to a 35 year old guard with a busted achilles. Really? Lakers just gave up a chance to be great team 5 years from now. They did earn the right to keep one of the greatest players of all-time and struggle to make play-offs year after year. In my opinion the only move they had was to trade Kobe to the 76ers for a first round pick, so he goes back home and plays with young players. But he obviously wouldn’t do that and probably has veto clause in contract that would prevent a trade.

INCONTROL (Romania): He`s old, so you can`t expect him to play better, but steadily decline. Lakers with their aging roster could well miss the playoffs – see how the Nets are doing. He`s coming after the worst injury in his career, there is no telling how he will respond. The risk of another injury is also pretty high at his age. Lakers might think they`ll sell T-Shirts, but I think they`ll miss the playoffs and it will be bad business. The Heat are winning titles because Lebron and D-Wade took less money. The Lakers should have waited more – nobody in the league would have gave Kobe this much money. Very bad deal considering the current cap space rules.

AAAZ (Bulgaria): A team of the Lakers’ caliber needs a name like Kobe. Too much money, yes, but this season and last year showed that without Bryant the Lakers’ lack personality and do not perform. Bottom line, Kobe is a cash machine and deserves the money.

UMICUMA (Serbia): In order to mount a championship challenge every big star needs support from the players around him, otherwise it is very hard. The best example was LeBron in Clevleand. In the past Kobe had Shaq and coach Phil Jackson behind. Now, the roster is very thin and D’Antoni is quality coach, but still not a champion caliber one. Lakers have extremely slim chances to win with Kobe’s current contract.

PLAYSAFE (Romania): I believe that Kobe is getting old (for NBA at top level) and I believe he also realizes this. So in order to have a happy retirement he signed this two year contract to make some good money and as a bonus he will finish his career as a Laker. I don’t think the Lakers would have offered him less money, but in case that would have happened I believe he would have accepted even a lesser salary. As for a Lakers championship-caliber team, this is fictional both for this season and for the next. In my humble opinion, this season they won’t even reach the playoffs.

SHAK (Romania): I`m not Kobe`s biggest fan, but the truth is that the Lakers depend on him. How much of a difference would have made if he took 4 million less? Gasol has 19. I think there`s too much fuss about Bryant`s contract, let`s not forget that guys like Joe Johnson or Amare Stoudemire are making 21 + millions per year. I think Kobe is well worth at least 20 million, and the team wouldn`t have got a superstar in the free agency anyway, so all in all I think it`s an ok and realistic deal.

The battle for World Cup qualification has reached its final stage, and the fight is on for the last available seats in the plane to Brazil 2014. The european battle will be decided in four tight, tense and mouthwatering ties, while other attraction points include Jordan – Uruguay, Mexico – New Zealand or Cameroon – Tunisia. Who will go trough?

Portugal – Sweden

The most anticipated clash in the playoffs will see giants Portugal take on Sweden. The portugese team, though filled with top-class stars and led by Cristiano Ronaldo, has failed to make an impact on the european stage and again they find themselves having to play a deciding tie in order to qualify. Portugal has fallen behind Russia in the Group, and against a resilient Swedish side they will have to be at their best to advance.

Sweden has done everything possible to finish second behind Germany, as overtaking the “Panzers” was always going to be an impossible task. They feature a great mix of young and experienced players (Svensson at 37 y/o is still going strong), and they have the top-class star that could make a difference: Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

This should be tight, and Portugal will have their hands full. However, sheer quality should see them through in a very tight tie. Expect the portugese side to play through the in-form Ronaldo and he should be able to make the difference, while Ibrahimovic, who also has slight fitness problems, might struggle with Sweden`s counter-attacking gameplan.

First leg prediction: Portugal – Sweden 3-2

Second leg prediction: Sweden – Portugal 1-1

Ukraine – France

France has been largely disappointing and criticized during their group campaign. The “Les Bleus” have assured playoff qualification only in the last few games, despite having an easy group. The 1st place was never within their grasp with Spain leading the show.

France will meet a very interesting and capable team. Ukraine has almost qualified directly, finishing just 1 point behind England, while easily overtaking teams like Montenegro or Poland in the standings. Except captain Tymoshchuk, all of Ukraine`s players are playing their football in the domestic league, which apparently gives them extra-cohesion and chemistry. Ukraine will be a very tough nut to crack for an underachieving France team, especially with Benzema in abysmal form. France`s quality and experience could see the “Les Bleus” through, but only by a slim margin

First leg prediction: Ukraine – France 1-1

Second leg prediction: France – Ukraine 2-1 (extra time)

Greece – Romania

The match between Greece and Romania will surely be out of the spotlight, with Greece being the weakest seeded team and Romania the worst team in the playoffs alltogether (except maybe Island). Both these sides celebrated getting eachother as an opponent, but the greek team starts as a favorite and for good reason.

Greece might not have the glamor and big-names of other sides, but they are a very strong team and were unlucky to only finish 2nd behind Bosnia in the group, as their 25 points should have been more than enough to avoid the playoffs. Besides this, it seems like the last time the greeks lost at home, the dinosaurs were in their early days on Earth. Romania will have their hands full end enter this clash as outsiders. 1998 was the last time the romanians took part in a World Cup, and they got to the playoffs mainly because Turkey had an abysmal start to the qualies. However, controversial head coach Victor Piturca will be an asset for Romania, as he already qualified this team to two Final Tournaments and he can outsmart his opponent, Fernando Santos, despite the latter being more seasoned in European Football.

Expect two tight, low-scoring encounters, between two defensive teams that will not take any risk. Betting on under 2,5 in both games seems like a good choice. Romania will miss their current best player (Chiriches, Tottenham – at least in the first leg) and their most talented player (Mutu, Ajaccio), which could end up ruining their chances of going through.

First leg prediction: Greece – Romania 1-0

Second leg prediction: Romania – Greece 1-1

Iceland – Croatia

Iceland did a great job to reach the playoffs, and they played some very nice football in the Group. However, being drawn against Croatia has pretty much ended their hopes of qualifying to their first World Cup. Croatia is a super strong side and they only finished second in the group because they faced the amazing Belgian team.

Croatia does have some problems, being in a poor run of form at the end of the qualifications and changing the coach, appointing Nico Kovac as a manager. Still, the talent they have at their disposal is fantastic and their are used to perform well when it matters.

With the first match set to be played in Iceland, Croatia should win both encounters. They will want the win on the road, and then they`ll have an easier task finishing the job at home, where they surely won`t settle for a draw. Mandzukic should do some damage here.

First leg prediction: Iceland – Croatia 1-2

Second leg prediction: Croatia – Iceland 3-0

Elswhere, Mexico and Uruguay should make light work of New Zealand and Jordan respectively. Ghana, Ivory Coast and Nigeria are virtually qualified from the African playoffs after solid wins in the first leg, while Algeria – Burkina Faso (2-3 1st leg) and Cameroon – Tunisia (0-0 1st leg) will be decided by the slimmest of margins, with the visitors seemingly having the first chance to qualify in both ties.

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May 11th 2014, Roma – Juventus, second to last round in the Serie A. 73.000 electric AS Roma fans are lighting up the Stadio Olimpico and are going insane as Francesco Totti is being presented onto the field. Roma celebrates it`s first Serie A Scudetto title in 13 years.

Is this a trip to the future or more of a Science Fiction scenario? Unibet is offering odds 3.50 for Roma to win the title and I think the price is definitely worth an investment that could make a punter very happy in 7 months time.

After 8 rounds, Roma is on the first place, 5 points clear of Napoli and Juventus. Rudi Garcia`s side has won all matches, with a 22-1 goal difference, including wins over rivals Inter and Napoli. Is Roma really so strong, or will they eventually come back to earth and concede the first place? What are the arguments for which Roma is playing so good and why are they set to win their first italian title since the 2000-2001 Serie A season?

Rudi Garcia

The french manager is clearly a top guy in this profession, winning the Ligue 1 and the Coupe de France with Lille in 2010-2011. He reshaped this club and you can surely count on him to not be outsmarted by rival managers. Garcia provided top players like Gervinho or Totti with the positioning and morale they need to perform at their best level.

Squad / Transfers

Roma had a brilliant transfer campaign in the off season, bringing in not only top players, but players which fit the needs of the team perfectly. Gervinho is playing the best football of his career under boss Garcia. Strootman is one of the most underrated players in european football, being one of the top 10 midfielders in the world in my opinion. Even Netherlands` boss van Gaal stated that, in a team full of superstars, his team is build around Strootman. Ljajic is having a breakout year and he could be on the verge of becoming a true top-class striker this season. Benatia became the leader of the top defense in Serie A and De Sanctis has already made Stekeelenburg`s departure forgotten. Maicon fills in the ex-vacant right-back role perfectly and other signings assure much needed depth. Florenzi has emerged as a superb goalscorer. The midfield is the most important asset of the team, and Roma is rock solid in this department. The Giallorossi can also count on the experience of Totti, De Rossi or Maicon in key moments of the season. The ideal team looks great:

De Sanctis – Maicon, Benatia, Castan, Balzaretti – Pjanic, De Rossi, Strootman – Florenzi, Totti, Gervinho

Fitness

Roma does not have to play European football this season, which will be a crucial factor for their fitness in latter stages of the season. Key aging players like De Sanctis, Maicon or Totti will also be able to be better prepared in the late winter and in the spring. Also, Roma has not been plagued by injuries so far and even though it`s early in the season, this is a good sign as it means the training regime does not make players susceptible to being hurt and the medical staff are doing their job. Considering this and the lack of european football, Roma has a good chance to stay relatively healthy until the end of the season.

Schedule

Roma is currently in unbelievable form and they have a string of 6 very accessible matches (Udinese, Chievo, Torino, Sassuolo, Cagliari, Atalanta). Nothing is set in stone in football, but they could take advantage of their form during this time and put even more distance between them and their title rivals. Also, the schedule is overall very balanced for them, and they will play Juventus at home in front of an electric Olimpico crowd in the second to last round. This could be a decisive factor if the title will be up for grabs until the latter stages of the season.

Opponents

The level in the Serie A has clearly decreased in the last seasons. No team has the quality to compete against the top-class sides in Europe and if you look at the teams that could dethrone Roma this year, you have to remain largely unimpressed. The 5 point gap that Roma has in front of the 2nd placed team (Napoli) is already an important advantage.

• Teams like Verona or Atalanta have started the season strong, but they are still more than 8 points behind and their level of play is not impressive. There will be no Cinderella story in italian football this year.

• Lazio (13 points behind) is no more than a Europa League spot contender.

• AC Milan (13 points behind) is basically out of the title race already, huge distance behind Roma and to top it off Milan is playing very poorly.

• Inter (9 points behind) is rebuilding, and they surely don`t have the quality to challenge for the title. Lack of talent and cohesion has already started to hurt them after a good start.

• Fiorentina (9 points behind) is a good team, but you have to feel they do not have the required strength for a title run, they have a lot of pieces that still need to be put in place and they are not on par with Roma`s quality. Mario`s Gomez three month injury is the nail in the coffin for La Viola.

• Napoli and Juventus (both 5 points behind) are the only teams that could challenge the Gialorossi this season. Napoli looks great under Rafa Benitez, with Higuain and their excellent midfield, but they are still missing some pieces to be a truly great team and Roma proved to be better in the meeting between the two this season: 2-0. If Napoli loses points at home to teams like Sassuolo, they can`t hope for more than a top 3 finish. Juve are the reigning champions but they took advantage of the disastrous level of football in the Serie A during the past 2 seasons. With Roma and Napoli  raising the bar this year, Juve does not look dominant anymore. They have been shaky this season in all competitions and having veteran Pirlo responsible for building your whole attacking game might not work anymore. Napoli and Juve remain contenders, but they do not have the upper hand against Roma, and they also have to compete in the Champions League.

Surely it is true that the current 3.50 price does not have the value of the odds offered in the start of the season, but what back then was an educated guess at most, now becomes a logical, fact driven investment. When you look at Juventus` odds of 2.00 to win the title, you have to feel that 3.50 for Roma is still very good value and if taken now, this investment could also soon provide sure bet possibilities – if Roma can keep up their form and take close to maximum points in the next few rounds where they have an easy schedule. All in all, it`s looking quite likely that Roma will get its 4th Serie A title and houses in Rome could well need some more space for Totti-Scudetto wall paintings at the end of the season.

If every sporting event would be played on neutral venue, both competitors would have equal chances to display their respective qualities and capabilities. But this is not the case, and home court advantage has a massive impact over pretty much every sport out there, from football to basketball or boxing. It’s well known that teams statistically perform better at home, so this article is not here to bring you a bunch of stats to show how Stoke City won more games home than away. Instead, we aim to provide an insight into WHY home court advantage is so important and how teams try to maximize the edge they gain when playing on their home turf.

Just to get things going, let`s take football and the English Premier League and see what the percentages say for the five years between the 2008-2009 and 2012-2013 seasons:

The numbers show pretty clearly that playing at home is an important edge, and this is a valid statement for every league in every sport. Punters put immense emphasys on the venue at which an event is played, and for good reason. But what does home court advantage really mean and why do we rate it so highly?

• The most important thing about home court advantage is the familiarity with the arena, the pitch and the surroundings. Players know every inch of the stadium and this is the main advantage that home court gives you. You can sleep in your own bed, eat your own food and you get a sense of comfort which gives you high confidence and morale. You feel you own the venue and subconsciously you know you have to defend it.

• Teams playing on the road have to travel, sometimes very far and in poor conditions. Jet lag and poor accommodations could also hurt you when playing away from home, while consecutive games on the road will produce a higher than usual level of fatigue.

• Crowd support is a crucial aspect of home games. With the fans behind you, creating a great atmosphere, your motivation rises, while the opponent could be hindered by booing, heckling and other specific fan aggression. Nevertheless, contrary to the popular belief, crowd support IS NOT the main advantage of playing at home. When you`re playing with no fans in the stands, you still have that home court advantage.

• Studies were carried and they have showed that indeed referees tend to give an edge to the home team under the pressure of the fans and the atmosphere in the stands. This applies mostly to inexperienced umpires.

• Some sports have specific rules that provide the home team with the edge. For example, in baseball the hosts will be last in each inning, a major advantage. Ice Hockey also has certain rules that favor the home side.

• Many teams have a big edge when playing at home because of the climate and altitude. Take Bolivia, not the best football nation but a tough test for any team in the world when playing in La Paz at an altitude of over 3.500 meters. Russian teams are also very scary when playing European Giants in late autumn in extreme cold and snow. Africa is another place where you don`t want to be an away team. The examples can go on forever, for a multitude of sports.

• Some competitors have gone to great lengths over the years in order to maximize the impact of home court advantage. Turning the heat up in the visiting locker room, flooding the pitch or providing the opposition with inadequate training conditions are common tactics to get the upper hand on your own arena.

With all these factors to consider, is no wonder that a simple change of venue can do so much in deciding the outcome of a game. It is always a good idea for punters to look for teams that have the most or the least advantages when playing at home in order to gain an edge over the bookies. I wouldn`t be confident betting against Bolivia playing at home, but I would back an experienced team to make use of the quality advantage when playing in certain road games. Home court advantage should be a key factor in every match analysis you make.