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Champions League preview: Groups G and H

Champions League group stage betting previewWe conclude our Champions League 2013 – 2014 group stage betting preview today with insights into Group G and Group H. You can also browse through our analysis for the other UCL groups below:

GROUP G: FC Porto, Atletico Madrid, Zenit St. Petersburg, Austria Wien

Even without big names, Group G is set to produce an interesting battle against some first class quality teams. FC Porto has been drawn as the first seed, and, as always, the portugese champions are favorites to progress to the R16. But Porto again lost their best players and it’s hard for the replacements to raise at the top level immediately. Porto will probably not win the group, and they could even have problems qualifying. Atletico Madrid is the real favorite here, with the spanish cup winners having the best teams in a long, long time. Falcao left to AS Monaco, but Atletico managed to sign a fantastic replacements, David Villa. Los Colchoneros started the league brilliantly, showed they can even challenge Barcelona and Real Madrid and should be the dominant force in this group.

Champions League group G betting previewZenit St. Petersburg should be happy with FC Porto coming out as the first seed here instead of some other European Giants. For the first time ever, the russian side has a real chance to go further. They have more financial power than the portugese (they ‘stole’ Hulk from them) and they are starting to look like a cohesive team after a couple of years of building. Atletico is still too strong for Zenit, but the russians and FC Porto can go head 2 head for the second position. For Austria Wien, anything else than a last place finish would be a colossal surprise. You can certainly put the austrians besides Copenhagen, Anderlecht, Steaua Bucharest, Celtic and Viktoria Plzen as the weakest teams in this Champions League season. They made it to the group stage thanks to a fluke 2-0 away win over a shaky Dinamo Zagreb side, barely managing to qualify in the last minutes at home, losing 2-3.

Prediction: 1. Atletico Madrid 2. FC Porto 3. Zenit St. Petersburg. 4. Austria Wien

Best bets

 

GROUP H: FC Barcelona, AC Milan, Ajax, Celtic

Group H is one of the most anticipated, with 4 historic teams looking to produce some quality football matches. Despite this, the final standings are rather predictable. FC Barcelona should cruise here, with Neymar getting some european experience and netting some goals in the process. The spanish side is just to strong for the other teams in the group and there is really not much else to say. AC Milan is set to finish second, but it’s unlikely they will have a field day against Celtic and especially Ajax. Milan has a poor defense and is not at top-class level anymore, so expect the italians to have to work for qualification here.

Champions League Group H betting previewAjax will try to out-manouver Celtic for the 3rd place, and they should be able to do just that. The dutch champions sold Eriksen and that will hurt them, but they still have a lot more quality than the scottish team and play a more dynamic style of football. If Ajax manages to play at the top of its game, the dutch can take advantage of the hiccups Milan will have along the way, and could challenge the italians for the second place. Nevertheless, Milan should go trough in the end. Celtic will probably finish last, depending on how Ajax presents itself they could maybe try to go for a 3rd place finish but it’s rather a long shot. The scots had a tight tie with Elfsborg and then qualified dramatically against Karagandy, so they don’t really look too good at the moment. They are disastrous on the road in european competitions so they have to win against Ajax at home and get a draw with Milan to even hope for the Europa League spot.

Like I said, the final standings are rather predictable, with just two possible surprises, both long to very long shots (Ajax over Milan or Celtic over Ajax). This could actually be the most predictable group.

Prediction: 1. FC Barcelona 2. AC Milan 3. Ajax 4. Celtic

Best bets:

  • Exact outright: Barcelona, AC Milan, Ajax, Celtic @ 1.85 at Bwin
  • Bet on Celtic to lose all away games

Champions League preview: Groups E and F

It`s time for Group E and Group F in our Champions League group stage preview. When you`re finished reading you can also take a look at our previews for the other groups:

GROUP E: Chelsea, Schalke 04, FC Basel, Steaua Bucharest

Champions League group E previewOne of the weaker groups in this UCL season sees Chelsea as the big favorite to go through, and The Blues should have little problem advancing to the last 16, also finishing 1st in the standings in the process. With Mourinho at the helm and some excellent young offensive players signed in the off season break, the english are one of the favorites to go all the way this year. Schalke 04 seems to be the biggest threat to Chelsea, but despite signing Boateng from Milan, they are not yet in the same league as The Blues. Besides this, their form in the start of the season has been shaky, and they could have problems qualifying if they don’t improve fast.

FC Basel has every reason to be hopeful regarding qualification to the last 16. The swiss side has tons of experience in UCL, even advancing past the group stage once. Basel was knocked out by Chelsea last year in the Europa League semifinals after defeating Tottenham in the quarters. Murat Yakin appears to be a very promising coach, and Basel has a good team this year. Despite these, they are still far away from Schalke in terms of quality and they would need a very bad campaign by the germans in order to advance. Steaua Bucharest is the weakest team in the group by a sensible margin, but the Romanians had a great season last year, even reaching the Europa League R16, being eliminated by Chelsea after knocking out Ajax at penalties. They don’t have the quality of the other teams in this group, but they will not be an easy opponent and will gain some points here, being capable of some surprising results along the way – especially at home. But they could also lose big in 1-2 games.

There should be little surprises in this group: Chelsea should cruise, Schalke should fend off Basel`s challenge and finish second. Steaua is the cinderella here, they may pose some problems to Schalke and Basel but they are set to finish last. Nevertheless, the romanians have the required strength to take advantage and finish 3rd if Basel has a poor campaign.

Prediction: 1. Chelsea 2. Schalke 3. FC Basel 4. Steaua Bucharest

Best bets:

  • Bet on Chelsea to win and / or cover the spread in the first 3-4 games

Champions League Groups E and F betting preview

GROUP F: Arsenal, Olympique Marseille, Borussia Dortmund, Napoli

Group F is without a doubt the strongest of them all – there will be some fantastic matches.

Champions League group F previewArsenal looks an improved team in the start of the season, and the signing of Mesut Ozil has boosted their ambitions. If the gunners keep up the same level of play, they may well make some noise in the Champions League this season. While qualification seems a lock, the first place can be tricky to get to say the least. Borussia Dortmund are the current Champions League runners up and they are pumping on all cylinders at the moment. On paper Arsenal has a more valuable squad, but Dortmund has the european results to show for last year. They have at least a 50% chance to win this group, with the gunners having to compete in the tough Premier League every weekend.

Marseille looks to be the weakest team in the group despite being drawn as the 2nd seed. The french could well end up outside of top 3 in France this year and they are far from having the required quality to compete against the likes of Arsenal and Dortmund. The third place looks to be a doable feat, but it won`t be easy. Napoli made some big investments after losing Cavani and they have a better squad than Marseille without a doubt. The italians should be able to finish ahead of Marseille, also challenging Arsenal and Dortmund at home in the process.

Despite the group being so strong, when you put your brain to work you realize that it is rather predictable. Arsenal and Dortmund are clearly stronger than the other two teams and it would be illogical if they did not qualify together, while Napoli should have an edge over Marseille. When you look at the kind of odds Arsenal has to win the group, you have to consider taking them to finish first, as it is pure value.

Prediction: 1. Borussia Dortmund 2. Arsenal 3. Napoli 4. Marseille

Best bets:

Champions League preview: Groups C and D

Our Champions League group stage preview continues today with Groups C and D, which are boosting some big names like current champions Bayern Munchen, Manchester City or PSG.

GROUP C: Benfica, PSG, Olympiakos, Anderlecht

Champions League Group C previewGroup C is one of the weakest and most unattractive in this Champions League season. Paris Saint Germain is the obvious favorite here. Last years` quarterfinalists are now stronger and more cohesive and should get the first place despite the fact that Benfica was the first seed. Nevertheless, PSG is still adapting to Laurent Blanc`s style of play and punters should take note that the already rugged french league just got tougher this year. The french could have some problems winning the group while playing difficult fixtures in Ligue 1 – especially with a worthy opponent like the portugese side. Benfica finally had one off-season in which they didn’t sell their best players. More so, they signed young serbian superstar Markovic from Partizan. The Lisbon outfit looks really good at the moment and they will give PSG a fight, with a slip-up from the french team meaning the first place for Benfica. Overall, these sides are a lock for the first two places, with PSG a slight favorite to win the group.

Olympiakos and Anderlecht are outsiders here by a big margin and will fight for the 3rd position, which guarantees an Europa League spot. The bookies see the greeks as favorites against the belgian side, but it-s rather a 50-50 battle between them. Olympiakos is weaker than in the past, coming from a league that is eaten alive by financial problems. Anderlecht had a solid 2012-2013 domestic season and they are very strong in the offensive line. Of course, they are barely at Champions League level, similar to the greeks. It would take more than a miracle for one of this two teams to even challenge for the first two spots. They will try to snatch some points at home against Benfica and/or PSG and battle it out in the direct meetings. Anderlecht are value for their money, but the 3rd place could go either way.

Prediction: 1. PSG 2. Benfica 3. Anderlecht 4. Olympiakos

Best bets:

Champions League groups betting preview
GROUP D: Bayern Munchen, CSKA Moscow, Manchester City, Viktoria Plzen

Current champions Bayern Munchen still have some questions to answer regarding their ability to keep up the same level of play under Guardiola. Their start of the season was good, but not really impressive. You have to expekt the bavarian side to again be a frontrunner in the trophy race, but until Guardiola proves himself, Bayern should not be backed at the low odds they are getting. They have a tough rival for the first place: Manchester City finally got rid of Mancini and with Pellegrini as a manager they should finally make some noise in the UCL after 2 group exits. City made some great signing in midfield and attack (Navas, Negredo, Jovetic, Fernandinho) and with european experience gained in the last years, the english side is set to have a solid Champions League campaign and challenge Bayern for the first spot.

Champions League preview Grup DCSKA Moscow must be devastated getting Manchester City as the third seed and can only realistically hope for the 3rd place in Group D. They should get it in front of a decent, fighting and cohesive Viktoria Plzen side, which despite its qualities obviously lacks class to compete against the top sides in Europe. Winning the Russian Premier league is no easy feat, and CSKA Moscow has every chance to get the third place in front of the czech side.

There should be no surprises in this group regarding the final standings except a possibility that City overtakes Bayern for the first place. Chances are we`ll see a lot of goals, with City and Bayern being devastating in offense, while the english also have questionable quality in the back-line. CSKA is very solid up-front itself, and Plzen`s defense should collapse in almost every game against such attacking quality.

Prediction: 1. Bayern Munchen 2. Manchester City 3. CSKA Moscow 4. Viktoria Plzen

Best bets:

  • Bet on goals

 

OTHER GROUP PREVIEWS: Groups A and B Groups E and F Groups G and H

Champions League preview: Groups A and B

Mid-september is when the football season really gets going, with Champions League giving us football at its finest between rounds in the domestic leagues. We will analyze the UCL group stages in four episodes until the official start of the competition. Today, groups A and B.

Champions League group stage preview

GROUP A: Manchester United, Shakhtar Donetk, Bayer Leverkusen, Real Sociedad

Group A might be one of the toughest to predict, being very well balanced and with all teams going through different phases of uncertainty. We could see some upsets both in individual events and in the final standings of the group. The final round could very well be decisive here.

Manchester United Champions League groupManchester United is the obvious favorite, but the Devils are used to being upset in the group stages from time to time (2005-2006, 2011-2012). With Sir Alex Ferguson gone, only one big signing (Fellaini) and a tough group filled with quality teams, United are not really worth backing to win the group, qualify or win particular matches at low odds. Nevertheless, you have to feel that Manchester United will proceed to secure first place here.

Former Europa League titlists Shakhtar Donetk are front runner for the second place in theory, but the ukraininas are going through a rebuilding process, selling their best players over the summer (Fernandinho, Mkhitaryan). They have always been inconsistent in the Champions League, having a lot of talented but inexperienced and undisciplined south brazilian youngsters in the first eleven. Leverkusen should be a big threat to Shakhtar, but the german team also lost some important men: Schurrle, Carvajal and Kadlec. They must prove that they can mantain the level from last season without these key players, but if they do, they will mount a solid challenge for the first two places. And the way Leverkusen started the season, they seem capable of playing the same solid football as they did in 2012/2013, having a cohesive team and a promising manager in Samy Hyypia.

Even after a 4th place finish in Spain last season, Real Sociedad is considered the cinderella in this group and for good reason. The spanish league is not so strong besides Real, Barcelona or Atletico and Sociedad`s win over Lyon in the playoffs is a little bit overrated, as Lyon is really not so strong at the moment. But make no mistake, Sociedad will be a tough competitor and they should be able to win a fair number of points, taking advantage in the standings if any other teams slip up. They could get an Europa League spot if Shakhter again fails to show its class against western european opponents.

Prediction: 1. Manchester United 2. Bayer Leverkusen  3. Real Sociedad 4. Shakhter Donetk

Best bets:

 

GROUP B: Real Madrid, Juventus, Galatasaray, FC Kobenhavn

Real Champions League group stageReal Madrid seems to be a lock for the first place in Group B. Even without Jose Mourinho, the spanish team is one of the big favorites to win the trophy and there should be no trouble for them against the opponents in this group, as they are clearly a level above everybody. They could lose some points in the last games and/or in Torino or Istanbul, but that`s it. Juventus dominated the italian league in the last 2 years but Serie A is really not what in once was. Juventus is still a long way from having the quality to fight equally against the top class sides in Europe. This was obvious in the 2012-2013 UCL season, when they were dismantled by Bayern Munchen in the quarters (0-4 aggregate). “The old lady” made some good signings in the summer (Tevez, Llorente, Ogbonna), but not enough to challenge the likes of Real Madrid.

Galatasaray is a dark horse here. The turkish team has an amazing squad, with the likes of Muslera, Burak Yilmaz, Drogba, Sneijder, Felipe Melo and many others in the roster, Galata may just have the best team in its history, arguably. Manager Fatih Terim is another big advantage for them, and the turks will give Juventus a run for their money in this group. They already played together for a season, reaching the quarterfinals in UCL last year (3-5 agg. vs. Real Madrid), so they should be even stronger in 2013-2014.

FC Kobenhavn is hands down the worst team in the group and should be happy to get 2-3 points here. The team is weaker than in the last seasons and their best player Cornelius was sold to Cardiff in the summer transfer window. It would be a huge surprise for the danish club to even get a win in this group, and qualification (Champions League or Europa League) is almost surely out of the question.

Prediction: 1. Real Madrid 2. Galatasaray 3. Juventus 4. FC Kobenhavn

Best bets:

 

OTHER GROUP PREVIEWS: Groups C and D Groups E and F Groups G and H

Football teams that punters should avoid in the 2013 – 2014 season

Every season a couple of teams end up being real nightmares for punters, but this can be avoided with caution and research. Only a few weeks into the 2013-2014 football season, Rostick talks about the top clubs that should be avoided by bettors. The list is focused on top teams from the strongest football leagues, as, of course, that is where the money mostly goes.

5. Valencia

Traditionally a top 4 club in Spain, Valencia will be in for tough times without Soldado (sold to Tottenham), who was by far the best player in the team, his goals keeping Valencia at a top level. It seems financial trouble will finally send Valencia outside the European cups places, but bookies are still treating the “Los Che” as a first rate team.

4. Bayern Munchen

Guardiola Bayern Munchen upsetYes, Bayern Munchen. It`s not that they are not very good, but the prices on them are absolutely rubbish (1.20 to win the league!), and the reality is that the team is struggling to get back to last years` level. Guardiola is yet to have successfully implemented his system, and at the top stage Bayern is still an unknown this season. With bettors jumping on 1.10 odds or 5 goal handicaps, the bavarians are set to bring the bookies some profit, at least in the first part of the season. Bayern did not cover the even money spread (1.91-1.91) in any of their first four league games.

3. Liverpool

Year after year Liverpool keeps on disappointing, and this season things are not about to change, especially with top scorer Suarez looking to leave the club. `Pool does not have offensive strength and will often be frustrated up-front by well organized defensive teams. In the best league in the world, you have to be absolutely top class to get the odds that Liverpool is getting, and unfortunately for the Reds, they lack the quality to challenge for a top 4 spot. Again.

2. Inter

Inter has the weakest squad in a long, long time, and the best they can hope for is an Europa League finish. Walter Mazzari could reinvent this team, but he needs more than one season to do so. Expect Inter to be upset by lesser opposition a lot of times this season while they look for cohesion and maybe some new signings.

AS Monaco Falcao overrated1. AS Monaco

With huge financial power, AS Monaco made some incredible signings in the off-season, including Radamel Falcao or James Rodriguez, and punters are all over this team at some ridiculous odds offered by the bookies. Two convincing wins in the first two rounds only made Monaco more overrated, and their home draw against Toulouse was one of the biggest hits for bookmakers at this early stage of the season. The fact is that Monaco needs time (a lot of time) to jell, and they are still not a top-class team, with some big stars but also some weak spots in the starting eleven. In a tough and rugged league like the French one, Monaco is set to be the biggest nightmare of the 2013 – 2014 season for punters.

Honorable mentions have to be given to Arsenal, Everton, PSG, AC Milan, Anzhi or Braga – other highly rated teams that can frustrate bettors this season.

Bonus team: Dinamo Bucharest

Dinamo Bucharest fans SteauaThe romanians will surely not be the first betting option for punters worldwide, coming from a poor league, but the ones who fancy backing Dinamo at low odds should think twice. A huge club in Romania, Dinamo will always be low priced by the bookies, but the fact is that the team is going through a rebuilding process, with many young players. Their inconsistency is already obvious after just 6 rounds. Dinamo achieved the biggest win of the season in the league (6-0) and beat strong Vaslui (2-0), but at the same time only gained 2 draws against the two weakest teams in the league and lost against a newly promoted club.