We conclude our Champions League 2013 – 2014 group stage betting preview today with insights into Group G and Group H. You can also browse through our analysis for the other UCL groups below:
GROUP G: FC Porto, Atletico Madrid, Zenit St. Petersburg, Austria Wien
Even without big names, Group G is set to produce an interesting battle against some first class quality teams. FC Porto has been drawn as the first seed, and, as always, the portugese champions are favorites to progress to the R16. But Porto again lost their best players and it’s hard for the replacements to raise at the top level immediately. Porto will probably not win the group, and they could even have problems qualifying. Atletico Madrid is the real favorite here, with the spanish cup winners having the best teams in a long, long time. Falcao left to AS Monaco, but Atletico managed to sign a fantastic replacements, David Villa. Los Colchoneros started the league brilliantly, showed they can even challenge Barcelona and Real Madrid and should be the dominant force in this group.
Zenit St. Petersburg should be happy with FC Porto coming out as the first seed here instead of some other European Giants. For the first time ever, the russian side has a real chance to go further. They have more financial power than the portugese (they ‘stole’ Hulk from them) and they are starting to look like a cohesive team after a couple of years of building. Atletico is still too strong for Zenit, but the russians and FC Porto can go head 2 head for the second position. For Austria Wien, anything else than a last place finish would be a colossal surprise. You can certainly put the austrians besides Copenhagen, Anderlecht, Steaua Bucharest, Celtic and Viktoria Plzen as the weakest teams in this Champions League season. They made it to the group stage thanks to a fluke 2-0 away win over a shaky Dinamo Zagreb side, barely managing to qualify in the last minutes at home, losing 2-3.
Prediction: 1. Atletico Madrid 2. FC Porto 3. Zenit St. Petersburg. 4. Austria Wien
Best bets
- Atletico Madrid to win the group @ 2.10 at Winner
- Austria Wien 1-4 points @ 1.55 at Bwin
GROUP H: FC Barcelona, AC Milan, Ajax, Celtic
Group H is one of the most anticipated, with 4 historic teams looking to produce some quality football matches. Despite this, the final standings are rather predictable. FC Barcelona should cruise here, with Neymar getting some european experience and netting some goals in the process. The spanish side is just to strong for the other teams in the group and there is really not much else to say. AC Milan is set to finish second, but it’s unlikely they will have a field day against Celtic and especially Ajax. Milan has a poor defense and is not at top-class level anymore, so expect the italians to have to work for qualification here.
Ajax will try to out-manouver Celtic for the 3rd place, and they should be able to do just that. The dutch champions sold Eriksen and that will hurt them, but they still have a lot more quality than the scottish team and play a more dynamic style of football. If Ajax manages to play at the top of its game, the dutch can take advantage of the hiccups Milan will have along the way, and could challenge the italians for the second place. Nevertheless, Milan should go trough in the end. Celtic will probably finish last, depending on how Ajax presents itself they could maybe try to go for a 3rd place finish but it’s rather a long shot. The scots had a tight tie with Elfsborg and then qualified dramatically against Karagandy, so they don’t really look too good at the moment. They are disastrous on the road in european competitions so they have to win against Ajax at home and get a draw with Milan to even hope for the Europa League spot.
Like I said, the final standings are rather predictable, with just two possible surprises, both long to very long shots (Ajax over Milan or Celtic over Ajax). This could actually be the most predictable group.
Prediction: 1. FC Barcelona 2. AC Milan 3. Ajax 4. Celtic
Best bets:
- Exact outright: Barcelona, AC Milan, Ajax, Celtic @ 1.85 at Bwin
- Bet on Celtic to lose all away games
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One of the weaker groups in this UCL season sees Chelsea as the big favorite to go through, and The Blues should have little problem advancing to the last 16, also finishing 1st in the standings in the process. With Mourinho at the helm and some excellent young offensive players signed in the off season break, the english are one of the favorites to go all the way this year. Schalke 04 seems to be the biggest threat to Chelsea, but despite signing Boateng from Milan, they are not yet in the same league as The Blues. Besides this, their form in the start of the season has been shaky, and they could have problems qualifying if they don’t improve fast.
Arsenal looks an improved team in the start of the season, and the signing of Mesut Ozil has boosted their ambitions. If the gunners keep up the same level of play, they may well make some noise in the Champions League this season. While qualification seems a lock, the first place can be tricky to get to say the least. Borussia Dortmund are the current Champions League runners up and they are pumping on all cylinders at the moment. On paper Arsenal has a more valuable squad, but Dortmund has the european results to show for last year. They have at least a 50% chance to win this group, with the gunners having to compete in the tough Premier League every weekend.
Group C is one of the weakest and most unattractive in this Champions League season. Paris Saint Germain is the obvious favorite here. Last years` quarterfinalists are now stronger and more cohesive and should get the first place despite the fact that Benfica was the first seed. Nevertheless, PSG is still adapting to Laurent Blanc`s style of play and punters should take note that the already rugged french league just got tougher this year. The french could have some problems winning the group while playing difficult fixtures in Ligue 1 – especially with a worthy opponent like the portugese side. Benfica finally had one off-season in which they didn’t sell their best players. More so, they signed young serbian superstar Markovic from Partizan. The Lisbon outfit looks really good at the moment and they will give PSG a fight, with a slip-up from the french team meaning the first place for Benfica. Overall, these sides are a lock for the first two places, with PSG a slight favorite to win the group.
CSKA Moscow must be devastated getting Manchester City as the third seed and can only realistically hope for the 3rd place in Group D. They should get it in front of a decent, fighting and cohesive Viktoria Plzen side, which despite its qualities obviously lacks class to compete against the top sides in Europe. Winning the Russian Premier league is no easy feat, and CSKA Moscow has every chance to get the third place in front of the czech side.
Manchester United is the obvious favorite, but the Devils are used to being upset in the group stages from time to time (2005-2006, 2011-2012). With Sir Alex Ferguson gone, only one big signing (Fellaini) and a tough group filled with quality teams, United are not really worth backing to win the group, qualify or win particular matches at low odds. Nevertheless, you have to feel that Manchester United will proceed to secure first place here.
Real Madrid seems to be a lock for the first place in Group B. Even without Jose Mourinho, the spanish team is one of the big favorites to win the trophy and there should be no trouble for them against the opponents in this group, as they are clearly a level above everybody. They could lose some points in the last games and/or in Torino or Istanbul, but that`s it. Juventus dominated the italian league in the last 2 years but Serie A is really not what in once was. Juventus is still a long way from having the quality to fight equally against the top class sides in Europe. This was obvious in the 2012-2013 UCL season, when they were dismantled by Bayern Munchen in the quarters (0-4 aggregate). “The old lady” made some good signings in the summer (Tevez, Llorente, Ogbonna), but not enough to challenge the likes of Real Madrid.
Yes, Bayern Munchen. It`s not that they are not very good, but the prices on them are absolutely rubbish (1.20 to win the league!), and the reality is that the team is struggling to get back to last years` level. Guardiola is yet to have successfully implemented his system, and at the top stage Bayern is still an unknown this season. With bettors jumping on 1.10 odds or 5 goal handicaps, the bavarians are set to bring the bookies some profit, at least in the first part of the season. Bayern did not cover the even money spread (1.91-1.91) in any of their first four league games.
1. AS Monaco
The romanians will surely not be the first betting option for punters worldwide, coming from a poor league, but the ones who fancy backing Dinamo at low odds should think twice. A huge club in Romania, Dinamo will always be low priced by the bookies, but the fact is that the team is going through a rebuilding process, with many young players. Their inconsistency is already obvious after just 6 rounds. Dinamo achieved the biggest win of the season in the league (6-0) and beat strong Vaslui (2-0), but at the same time only gained 2 draws against the two weakest teams in the league and lost against a newly promoted club.