Betdistrict.com
(I am starting a new strategy today, where I will be publishing tips that I've found to have better odds than they should, according to a model I've developed that is based on overall statistics, current form and house edge. So every tip that I post is essentially a value bet where I see a 5%-10% edge for the player. I suggest using a small flat stake for all, we are playing the long game and looking to make a profit over time. So take all of this into consideration if you decide to back these tips. Posting this intro to all of today's previews.)
City are looking to secure another win that will move them back to 1st place in the PL with one match to go before the end of the season. They'll be winning another title if they win both.
On average, City have scored 3 goals per game at home this season, they're a goal scoring machine, and considering they need a win here, they'll come out firing.
Leicester are not a poor team however. They've managed to score 1.5 goals per match on average in away matches this season, they're a decent offensive team themselves.
Both teams have scored in 72% of Leicester's away games this season, while both teams have scored in 56% of City's home games this season. At odds of 1.9, I see this as a clear value bet. Leicester are more than capable of grabbing a goal here, and imho the odds should be lower.
I would go for this bet at odds of 1.85 minimum, by my model, the odds should be 1.75 for BTTS here. Odds will probably drop by the time the match starts.
Pick: Both To Score
Odds: 1.9
Bookmaker: ➾ Pinnacle
Stake: 5 units
Tipster: Amn_Googly87
| TIPSTER: Amn_Googly87 | Total profit: -45.93 | Tips won: 135 |
| Country: Romania | Total yield: -2.17% | Tips lost: 146 |
| Speciality: Basketball | Total picks: 288 | Tips pushed: 7 |
| 15.05 | • Sion - Neuchatel Xamax | 2.75 | 5 | ✅ | +8.75 |
| 08.05 | • Ceske Budejovice - AFK Chrudim | 2.1 | 5 | ✅ | +5.5 |
| 08.05 | • Fremad Amager - Lyngby | 2.19 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
| 07.05 | • FC Zbrojovka Brno - FC Hradec | 1.89 | 5 | ✅ | +4.45 |
| 07.05 | • Buchholz - Dassendorf | 2.06 | 5 | ✅ | +5.3 |
| 06.05 | • Manchester City - Leicester | 1.9 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
| 06.05 | • Ac Milan - Bologna | 2.02 | 5 | ✅ | +5.1 |
| 06.05 | • Vitoria Setubal - Boavista Porto | 1.82 | 5 | ✅ | +4.1 |
| 06.05 | • Niort - Lorient | 1.79 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
| 06.05 | • Furth - FC Koln | 2.46 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
