Betdistrict.com
(I am starting a new strategy today, where I will be publishing tips that I've found to have better odds than they should, according to a model I've developed that is based on overall statistics, current form and house edge. So every tip that I post is essentially a value bet where I see a 5%-10% edge for the player. I suggest using a small flat stake for all, we are playing the long game and looking to make a profit over time. So take all of this into consideration if you decide to back these tips. Posting this intro to all of today's previews.)
Lorient are sitting in 5th position, the last one that gives a promotion playoff spot.
Niort are in 12th with not much to play for here.
Lorient have scored 1.24 goals per match on the road this season, while Niort have scored 0.94 per home game.
Only 18% of Niort's home matches have ended in over 2.5 goals scored so far this year, so it's safe to say that Niort are a good defensive team at home that focus on not conceding many goals.
Looking at current form, 4 of Niort's last 6 games have ended in under 2.5 goals, and 3 of 6 of Lorient's last 6 away games have ended in 3 or less goals scored.
Lorient need this win, so I'm anticipating a tense match here, that I see likely to end up being low scoring. Niort are a tough nut to crack at home, so a 0-1, 1-1 looks quite likely here to me.
By my model, the odds for an under here should be around 1.6, so at 1.79 there is good value on the table here. Don't go for this at odds lower than 1.7.
Pick: Under 2.5
Odds: 1.79
Bookmaker: ➾ Pinnacle
Stake: 5 units
Tipster: Amn_Googly87
| TIPSTER: Amn_Googly87 | Total profit: -45.93 | Tips won: 135 |
| Country: Romania | Total yield: -2.17% | Tips lost: 146 |
| Speciality: Basketball | Total picks: 288 | Tips pushed: 7 |
| 15.05 | • Sion - Neuchatel Xamax | 2.75 | 5 | ✅ | +8.75 |
| 08.05 | • Ceske Budejovice - AFK Chrudim | 2.1 | 5 | ✅ | +5.5 |
| 08.05 | • Fremad Amager - Lyngby | 2.19 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
| 07.05 | • FC Zbrojovka Brno - FC Hradec | 1.89 | 5 | ✅ | +4.45 |
| 07.05 | • Buchholz - Dassendorf | 2.06 | 5 | ✅ | +5.3 |
| 06.05 | • Manchester City - Leicester | 1.9 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
| 06.05 | • Ac Milan - Bologna | 2.02 | 5 | ✅ | +5.1 |
| 06.05 | • Vitoria Setubal - Boavista Porto | 1.82 | 5 | ✅ | +4.1 |
| 06.05 | • Niort - Lorient | 1.79 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
| 06.05 | • Furth - FC Koln | 2.46 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
