Betdistrict.com
(I am starting a new strategy today, where I will be publishing tips that I've found to have better odds than they should, according to a model I've developed that is based on overall statistics, current form and house edge. So every tip that I post is essentially a value bet where I see a 5%-10% edge for the player. I suggest using a small flat stake for all, we are playing the long game and looking to make a profit over time. So take all of this into consideration if you decide to back these tips. Posting this intro to all of today's previews.)
Setubal (14th) meet Boavista (13th) in a match without a very high stake. Both teams are safe from relegation and outside any chance of getting a Europa League spot for next season.
These are not high scoring teams, and looking at the statistics, you can clearly see this point. Setubal have scored on average 0.8 goals per game at home, while Boavista have scored just 0.67 goals per game away.
Looking at recent form, we've seen unders in 5 of Setubal's last 6 games, and in 4 of Boavista's last 5.
Even more relevant, both teams have not scored in Vitoria's 4 of last 6, and Boavista's 4 of last 6.
Considering that there isn't much to play for here, I don't see these 2 killing themselves to score too many goals. At odds of around 1.8 Both Teams to NOT score looks like a good bet for me.
By my model, odds should be 1.70 at the most, probably closer to 1.65. Don't go for this if odds have dropped under 1.75
Good luck!
Pick: Both Teams To NOT Score
Odds: 1.82
Bookmaker: ➾ Pinnacle
Stake: 5 units
Tipster: Amn_Googly87
| TIPSTER: Amn_Googly87 | Total profit: -45.93 | Tips won: 135 |
| Country: Romania | Total yield: -2.17% | Tips lost: 146 |
| Speciality: Basketball | Total picks: 288 | Tips pushed: 7 |
| 15.05 | • Sion - Neuchatel Xamax | 2.75 | 5 | ✅ | +8.75 |
| 08.05 | • Ceske Budejovice - AFK Chrudim | 2.1 | 5 | ✅ | +5.5 |
| 08.05 | • Fremad Amager - Lyngby | 2.19 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
| 07.05 | • FC Zbrojovka Brno - FC Hradec | 1.89 | 5 | ✅ | +4.45 |
| 07.05 | • Buchholz - Dassendorf | 2.06 | 5 | ✅ | +5.3 |
| 06.05 | • Manchester City - Leicester | 1.9 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
| 06.05 | • Ac Milan - Bologna | 2.02 | 5 | ✅ | +5.1 |
| 06.05 | • Vitoria Setubal - Boavista Porto | 1.82 | 5 | ✅ | +4.1 |
| 06.05 | • Niort - Lorient | 1.79 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
| 06.05 | • Furth - FC Koln | 2.46 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
