Betdistrict.com
(I am starting a new strategy today, where I will be publishing tips that I've found to have better odds than they should, according to a model I've developed that is based on overall statistics, current form and house edge. So every tip that I post is essentially a value bet where I see a 5%-10% edge for the player. I suggest using a small flat stake for all, we are playing the long game and looking to make a profit over time. So take all of this into consideration if you decide to back these tips. Posting this intro to all of today's previews.)
FC Koln are leading the 2.Bundesliga but have just sacked their manager after 2 draws and 2 consecutive defeats. They've appointed the U21 Manager in his place. A bit weird considering they're all but guaranteed to finish 1st this year.
Furth are in 14th, quite safe from relegation although they would need an extra 1 point in their last 3 matches to make it mathematically secure.
Koln have been scoring 2 goals per game on the road this season, while Furth have been scoring 1.4 goals per home match.
What is interesting however is that Furth have only conceded 1.2 goals at home for the season, so while not a very competitive team they have been able to defend fairly ok at home.
Looking at the season overall, 53% of Koln's away games have been over 2.5, and 53% of Furth's home games have been over 2.5.
This is probably a riskier bet than the others, but at 2.4+ odds this bet has a clear edge. In reality, based on statistics this bet should have around 2.1 odds, so there is value here. A new coach being appointed also works in our favor here I reckon, I think he'll want to get a result and not concede a goal here if possible. 0-1, 0-2 look likely to me as results. Don't go for this if odds are lower than 2.25 at the minimum.
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals
Odds: 2.46
Bookmaker: ➾ Pinnacle
Stake: 5 units
Tipster: Amn_Googly87
| TIPSTER: Amn_Googly87 | Total profit: -45.93 | Tips won: 135 |
| Country: Romania | Total yield: -2.17% | Tips lost: 146 |
| Speciality: Basketball | Total picks: 288 | Tips pushed: 7 |
| 15.05 | • Sion - Neuchatel Xamax | 2.75 | 5 | ✅ | +8.75 |
| 08.05 | • Ceske Budejovice - AFK Chrudim | 2.1 | 5 | ✅ | +5.5 |
| 08.05 | • Fremad Amager - Lyngby | 2.19 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
| 07.05 | • FC Zbrojovka Brno - FC Hradec | 1.89 | 5 | ✅ | +4.45 |
| 07.05 | • Buchholz - Dassendorf | 2.06 | 5 | ✅ | +5.3 |
| 06.05 | • Manchester City - Leicester | 1.9 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
| 06.05 | • Ac Milan - Bologna | 2.02 | 5 | ✅ | +5.1 |
| 06.05 | • Vitoria Setubal - Boavista Porto | 1.82 | 5 | ✅ | +4.1 |
| 06.05 | • Niort - Lorient | 1.79 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
| 06.05 | • Furth - FC Koln | 2.46 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
