Betdistrict.com
(I am starting a new strategy today, where I will be publishing tips that I've found to have better odds than they should, according to a model I've developed that is based on overall statistics, current form and house edge. So every tip that I post is essentially a value bet where I see a 5%-10% edge for the player. I suggest using a small flat stake for all, we are playing the long game and looking to make a profit over time. So take all of this into consideration if you decide to back these tips. Posting this intro to all of today's previews.)
AC Milan are currently 7th with this match in hand, and with a good chance of still finishing on an Europa League spot for next season, just 3 points off 5th place.
The Rossoneri have scored on average 1.6 goals per home match this season, while conceding 0.94 goals per match at the San Siro.
Bologna are sitting in 15th, quite safe from relegation, although 1 or 2 extra points in the closing games of the season would probably also save them mathematically.
Bologna haven't had a good defense at all this year, conceding 1.41 goals per game and 1.71 goals on average on the road.
5 of Bologna's last 6 games have ended in over 2.5 goals scored, and 4 of their last 6 away. They have also scored in these 4 of 6 away matches that ended in 3 goals or more.
At odds of around 2, I see this as a good value bet. By my model, odds for an over 2.5 goals should be around 1.8 here, so anything bigger is added value. Good luck!
Pick: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 2.02
Bookmaker: ➾ Pinnacle
Stake: 5 units
Tipster: Amn_Googly87
| TIPSTER: Amn_Googly87 | Total profit: -45.93 | Tips won: 135 |
| Country: Romania | Total yield: -2.17% | Tips lost: 146 |
| Speciality: Basketball | Total picks: 288 | Tips pushed: 7 |
| 15.05 | • Sion - Neuchatel Xamax | 2.75 | 5 | ✅ | +8.75 |
| 08.05 | • Ceske Budejovice - AFK Chrudim | 2.1 | 5 | ✅ | +5.5 |
| 08.05 | • Fremad Amager - Lyngby | 2.19 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
| 07.05 | • FC Zbrojovka Brno - FC Hradec | 1.89 | 5 | ✅ | +4.45 |
| 07.05 | • Buchholz - Dassendorf | 2.06 | 5 | ✅ | +5.3 |
| 06.05 | • Manchester City - Leicester | 1.9 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
| 06.05 | • Ac Milan - Bologna | 2.02 | 5 | ✅ | +5.1 |
| 06.05 | • Vitoria Setubal - Boavista Porto | 1.82 | 5 | ✅ | +4.1 |
| 06.05 | • Niort - Lorient | 1.79 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
| 06.05 | • Furth - FC Koln | 2.46 | 5 | ❌ | -5 |
